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LATAM: Week Ahead: Focus On BCCh Interest Rate Decision, BCB Focus Survey

LATAM
  • Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting in Chile will highlight next week, where the market is leaning towards a further 25bp rate cut. On the data front, August CPI figures will be published in Peru and Chile, while Brazil Q2 GDP will cross. Chile July economic activity data are also due, while the BCB’s Focus survey will be watched closely on Monday, given the recent increase in rate hike expectations in Brazil.
    • Peru will publish August CPI data on Sunday, with consensus for a further moderation in the headline inflation rate to 2.00% y/y, from 2.13%.
    • On Monday, Chile (IMACEC) economic activity for July will be released, with the market looking for growth to pick up to +2.4% y/y, from 0.1%. Elsewhere, the BCB will publish its weekly Focus survey, with attention on year-end SELIC rate expectations, which may be revised up. Banxico will also release its latest economist survey, while regional PMI data, Colombia Q2 current account and Argentina August tax revenue will cross.
    • Focus on Tuesday will turn to the BCCh monetary policy meeting, where a majority of analysts currently expect a 25bp cut to 5.50%. On the data front, Brazil Q2 GDP growth is expected to edge up to 2.6% y/y, while Mexico unemployment and gross fixed investment and Colombia July exports are also due.
    • On Wednesday, Brazil industrial production is expected to rise by 6.5% y/y in July, while latest services and composite PMI figures for Brazil will also cross.
    • August trade numbers for Brazil will then be released on Thursday, while on the survey front, the Citi survey of economists will be published in Mexico and the latest BCRA analysts survey will be released in Argentina.
    • Chile CPI data for August will wrap up the week on Friday, with consensus for a further uptick in headline inflation to 4.7% y/y.
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