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CNH: Late 2024 USD/CNH Highs Close By, Dec Trade Data Out Today

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USD/CNH got close to 7.3650 in US Friday trade, post the stronger than expected NFP and dip in the unemployment rate. Pullbacks towards 7.3500 were supported post the data and we track near 7.3600 in early Monday dealings. CNH lost 0.10% for Friday's session, still outperforming broader USD index gains (BBDXY +0.47%, DXY +0.43%). Spot USD/CNY finished very close to the top end of the daily trading band at 7.3326. The CNY CFEST basket tracker was relatively steady at 101.39. 

  • For USD/CNH spot, upside interest will rest on end 2024 highs at 7.3695. Can we break through this level without a move higher in USD/CNY spot, which remains wedged just above 7.3300, anchored by the steady onshore CNY fixing near 7.1900, will be in focus today.
  • Given the further rise in USD indices from Friday, the bias will remain for a firmer fixing outcome, with the fixing error to stay or make fresh wides unless the authorities accept fresh onshore depreciation pressures.
  • In the cross asset space, local government bond yields held firmer on Friday, more so at the front end, as the PBoC halted bond purchases, with current market conditions being dominated from the demand side. Local equities were softer though, the CSI 300 off 1.25% to the low 3730 region. US tech curbs, growth concerns and softer global trends, are all weighing in this space.
  • Locally today we have Dec trade figures. Export growth is projected at 7.5%y/y, versus 6.7% prior, with some potential front loading of exports ahead of the returning trump administration in focus. Imports are forecast at -1.0%y/y versus prior -3.9%. We also still await Dec new loans/aggregate finance data. 
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USD/CNH got close to 7.3650 in US Friday trade, post the stronger than expected NFP and dip in the unemployment rate. Pullbacks towards 7.3500 were supported post the data and we track near 7.3600 in early Monday dealings. CNH lost 0.10% for Friday's session, still outperforming broader USD index gains (BBDXY +0.47%, DXY +0.43%). Spot USD/CNY finished very close to the top end of the daily trading band at 7.3326. The CNY CFEST basket tracker was relatively steady at 101.39. 

  • For USD/CNH spot, upside interest will rest on end 2024 highs at 7.3695. Can we break through this level without a move higher in USD/CNY spot, which remains wedged just above 7.3300, anchored by the steady onshore CNY fixing near 7.1900, will be in focus today.
  • Given the further rise in USD indices from Friday, the bias will remain for a firmer fixing outcome, with the fixing error to stay or make fresh wides unless the authorities accept fresh onshore depreciation pressures.
  • In the cross asset space, local government bond yields held firmer on Friday, more so at the front end, as the PBoC halted bond purchases, with current market conditions being dominated from the demand side. Local equities were softer though, the CSI 300 off 1.25% to the low 3730 region. US tech curbs, growth concerns and softer global trends, are all weighing in this space.
  • Locally today we have Dec trade figures. Export growth is projected at 7.5%y/y, versus 6.7% prior, with some potential front loading of exports ahead of the returning trump administration in focus. Imports are forecast at -1.0%y/y versus prior -3.9%. We also still await Dec new loans/aggregate finance data.