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Late Rally Doesn’t Materially Change Sizeable Re-Cheapening

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys see some late unwinding of the day’s cheapening, extending as SPX reversed a nearly 2% intraday drop.
  • Moves help more than unwind the additional sell-off after ISM services strength but front end yields are still +5.5bps with solid increases in 2023 Fed rate expectations, especially in 2H23 with terminal at 4.5% and Dec’23 at 4.2%.
  • Largest increases are seen in 10YY, currently +11.5bps and with strong increases in real yields seeing a notable retracement of Monday’s rally with breakevens modestly dipping and remaining relatively close to YTD lows.
  • TYZ2 trades -29 at 112-19, off lows of 112-08+ that didn’t trouble support at 111-20+ (Sep 21 low).
  • Multiple Fed speakers headline tomorrow’s docket including Governors Cook and Waller.
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