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Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Turning Bullish

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Still two-way, SOFR and Treasury options leaned bullish Friday as underlying futures surged higher following April jobs miss. Projected rate cut pricing surged after the data but has moderated slightly: June 2024 -10% w/ cumulative rate cut -2.5bp at 5.302%, July'24 at -28% vs. -34% (post data high) w/ cumulative at -9.5bp vs. -12.3bp (post data) at 5.233%, Sep'24 cumulative -22.1bp (-25.9bp post data), Nov'24 cumulative -31.7bp (-35.6bp earlier). Dec'24 cumulative currently -46.4bp vs. -54.7bp post data as two 25bp cut pricing moderates.

  • SOFR Options:
    • -21,000 SFRU4 94.62/95.00 2x1 put spds, 15.0 ref 94.915
    • +10,000 SFRH5 96.25/97.75 call spds 13.5 vs. 95.395/0.18%
    • +5,000 SFRH5 95.75/96.00 call spds 1.25 over 94.00/94.50 put spds ref 95.37
    • +5,000 SFRU4 94.37/95.00/94.62/94.75 put condors 3.25 ref 94.90
    • -5,000 SFRZ4 95.75/96.00 call spds 3.25 ref 95.21
    • -8,000 SFRM4 94.68/94.75/94.81 put flys, 1.0
    • +10,000 SFRU4 95.0/95.12/95.25 call ef 94.955
    • Block/screen, -21,000 SFRU4 94.62/95.00 2x1 put spds, 15.0 ref 94.915
    • Block, 5,000 SFRZ4 94.37/94.62/94.87 put flys, 5.5 ref 95.135
    • Block, 5,000 SFRZ5 93.75/94.25/94.75 put flys, 4.0/checking direction but paper +47k Wed, +10k Thu, +50k Apr 18
    • Block, 7,150 SFRU4 94.81/94.93/95.06 call flys, 2.5
    • Block, 10,000 SFRH5 94.43/94.68 put spds, 4.5 ref 95.31
    • 6,000 SFRZ4 93.25/94.50/94.56 broken put trees ref 95.075
    • Block, 2,500 0QK4 95.00/95.12 put spds, 0.5 ref 95.49
    • 3,000 0QM4 95.75/96.00/96.25 call flys ref 95.49
    • Block, 5,000 0QK4 95.68/95.81 call spds, 2.0 ref 95.49
    • 2,000 SFRZ4 94.37/94.62/94.87 put flys vs. 1,000 SFRZ 96.00 calls
    • 2,000 SFRU4 94.62/94.75 put spds vs. 1,000 SFRU4 95.50 calls
    • Block, 2,500 0QU4 94.50/95.00/95.50 1x4x2 put flys, 14.5 ref 95.65
  • Treasury Options
    • 33,000 TYM4 113 calls, 1 vs. 108-23.5/0.03% blocked at 1151:17ET
    • 33,000 TYM4 112.75 calls 1 vs. 108-21/0.03% on the screen
    • Block, -15,000 TYM4 111 calls, 5.5/splits ref 108-26
    • 12,000 TYM4 106 put, 4 ref 108-25.5 at 1133:59ET
    • +11,750 TYM4 105.5/111.5 call over risk reversals, 2
    • 2,500 FVM4 103/103.5/104/104.5 put condors ref 105-12.5
    • 1,500 TUN4 102.25/103 2x3 call spds vs. 3,000 TUN4 101.25 puts
    • 2,500 TYN4 110/110.5/111.5/112 call condors ref 108-17
    • 4,300 wk2 10Y 106.25 puts, 1 ref 108-08.5 expire next Fri
    • 2,100 TYM4 109/110.5 call spds ref 108-10
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Still two-way, SOFR and Treasury options leaned bullish Friday as underlying futures surged higher following April jobs miss. Projected rate cut pricing surged after the data but has moderated slightly: June 2024 -10% w/ cumulative rate cut -2.5bp at 5.302%, July'24 at -28% vs. -34% (post data high) w/ cumulative at -9.5bp vs. -12.3bp (post data) at 5.233%, Sep'24 cumulative -22.1bp (-25.9bp post data), Nov'24 cumulative -31.7bp (-35.6bp earlier). Dec'24 cumulative currently -46.4bp vs. -54.7bp post data as two 25bp cut pricing moderates.

  • SOFR Options:
    • -21,000 SFRU4 94.62/95.00 2x1 put spds, 15.0 ref 94.915
    • +10,000 SFRH5 96.25/97.75 call spds 13.5 vs. 95.395/0.18%
    • +5,000 SFRH5 95.75/96.00 call spds 1.25 over 94.00/94.50 put spds ref 95.37
    • +5,000 SFRU4 94.37/95.00/94.62/94.75 put condors 3.25 ref 94.90
    • -5,000 SFRZ4 95.75/96.00 call spds 3.25 ref 95.21
    • -8,000 SFRM4 94.68/94.75/94.81 put flys, 1.0
    • +10,000 SFRU4 95.0/95.12/95.25 call ef 94.955
    • Block/screen, -21,000 SFRU4 94.62/95.00 2x1 put spds, 15.0 ref 94.915
    • Block, 5,000 SFRZ4 94.37/94.62/94.87 put flys, 5.5 ref 95.135
    • Block, 5,000 SFRZ5 93.75/94.25/94.75 put flys, 4.0/checking direction but paper +47k Wed, +10k Thu, +50k Apr 18
    • Block, 7,150 SFRU4 94.81/94.93/95.06 call flys, 2.5
    • Block, 10,000 SFRH5 94.43/94.68 put spds, 4.5 ref 95.31
    • 6,000 SFRZ4 93.25/94.50/94.56 broken put trees ref 95.075
    • Block, 2,500 0QK4 95.00/95.12 put spds, 0.5 ref 95.49
    • 3,000 0QM4 95.75/96.00/96.25 call flys ref 95.49
    • Block, 5,000 0QK4 95.68/95.81 call spds, 2.0 ref 95.49
    • 2,000 SFRZ4 94.37/94.62/94.87 put flys vs. 1,000 SFRZ 96.00 calls
    • 2,000 SFRU4 94.62/94.75 put spds vs. 1,000 SFRU4 95.50 calls
    • Block, 2,500 0QU4 94.50/95.00/95.50 1x4x2 put flys, 14.5 ref 95.65
  • Treasury Options
    • 33,000 TYM4 113 calls, 1 vs. 108-23.5/0.03% blocked at 1151:17ET
    • 33,000 TYM4 112.75 calls 1 vs. 108-21/0.03% on the screen
    • Block, -15,000 TYM4 111 calls, 5.5/splits ref 108-26
    • 12,000 TYM4 106 put, 4 ref 108-25.5 at 1133:59ET
    • +11,750 TYM4 105.5/111.5 call over risk reversals, 2
    • 2,500 FVM4 103/103.5/104/104.5 put condors ref 105-12.5
    • 1,500 TUN4 102.25/103 2x3 call spds vs. 3,000 TUN4 101.25 puts
    • 2,500 TYN4 110/110.5/111.5/112 call condors ref 108-17
    • 4,300 wk2 10Y 106.25 puts, 1 ref 108-08.5 expire next Fri
    • 2,100 TYM4 109/110.5 call spds ref 108-10