MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, March 12

MNI BRIEF:Direction Of Inflation Shocks Harder To Call-Lagarde

MNI BRIEF: EU Targets Retaliation Tariffs On US Red States

MNI BRIEF: China To Boost Environmental Equipment Industry

MNI BRIEF: China SME Index Highest Since June 2021

MNI China Press Digest March 12: FDI, Cars, Retail Sales

MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE +11.2% SA THRU MAR 07 WK

MNI: JAPAN FEB CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +4.0% Y/Y; JAN +4.2%

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 14.87B BSL

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

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US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Positioning Ahead Wednesday CPI

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America

SOFR & Treasury option flow still leaning towards downside puts late Tuesday with some sporadic call trade reported. Relatively staid action ahead of Wednesday's key CPI inflation data. Underlying futures near session lows, curves bear steepen with short end rates outperforming. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 look steady to mildly softer vs. this morning levels (*) as follows: Mar'25 at -1.4bp (-1.6bp), May'25 at -6.3bp (-6.8bp), Jun'25 at -14.8bp (-1539bp), Jul'25 at -19.6bp (-20.6bp).

  • SOFR Options:
    • +5,000 0QG5 95.87/96.00 put spds 3.0 ref 96.025
    • -5,000 2QH5 95.87 puts, 5.0 vs. 96.055/0.26%
    • 5,000 SFRM5 95.75/95.81/95.87 call flys
    • +10,000 0QH5 96.50 calls, 1.5 vs. 96.04/0.10%
    • +2,000 0QG 95.81/95.93/96.00 2,3,1 put flys 3.5 ref 96.02
    • +7,500 SFRN5 95.56/95.75/95.93 put flys 6.5 ref 95.915
    • -3,000 SFRM5 95.75/96.12 put over risk reversal, 2.25 vs. 95.80/0.54%
    • +7,500 0QG 96.06 puts, 7.5 ref 96.02
    • 13,300 0QN5 95.75 puts vs. 96.06/96.50 call spds, 0.0 net ref 96.04
    • 2,500 SFRM5 95.81/95.93/96.18 2x3x1 call flys ref 95.82
    • 4,000 SFRH5 95.62/95.68 put spds ref 95.71
    • 1,750 SFRH5 95.68 puts vs. 95.75/95.81 call spds
    • 2,500 SFRJ5 95.68/95.75/95.81 put flys ref 95.825
    • 1,500 0QM5 96.25/96.50/96.75 call flys ref 96.05
  • Treasury Options:
    • -25,000 TYH5 109 puts, 28 (unwind of +20k from 18-20 yesterday)
    • 6,000 TYH5 108.5 puts, 15 ref 108-31.5
    • 3,500 TYK5 111/113 call spds ref 108-30.5
    • 3,300 TYH5 106/107 put spds ref 108-30.5
    • 3,850 TYH5 108.5/109.25 strangles, 36 ref 108-30
    • 1,200 TYH5 107/108 2x1 put spds
    • 4,300 FVH5 105.25/105.5 put spds
    • 5,000 USH5 112 puts, 6 ref 114-26
    • 2,000 TYH5 109.5/110.5 1x2 call spds
    • 1,200 TYH5 107/107.5 3x2 put spds
    • 2,200 TYJ5 107/108.5 put spds ref 109-01
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SOFR & Treasury option flow still leaning towards downside puts late Tuesday with some sporadic call trade reported. Relatively staid action ahead of Wednesday's key CPI inflation data. Underlying futures near session lows, curves bear steepen with short end rates outperforming. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 look steady to mildly softer vs. this morning levels (*) as follows: Mar'25 at -1.4bp (-1.6bp), May'25 at -6.3bp (-6.8bp), Jun'25 at -14.8bp (-1539bp), Jul'25 at -19.6bp (-20.6bp).

  • SOFR Options:
    • +5,000 0QG5 95.87/96.00 put spds 3.0 ref 96.025
    • -5,000 2QH5 95.87 puts, 5.0 vs. 96.055/0.26%
    • 5,000 SFRM5 95.75/95.81/95.87 call flys
    • +10,000 0QH5 96.50 calls, 1.5 vs. 96.04/0.10%
    • +2,000 0QG 95.81/95.93/96.00 2,3,1 put flys 3.5 ref 96.02
    • +7,500 SFRN5 95.56/95.75/95.93 put flys 6.5 ref 95.915
    • -3,000 SFRM5 95.75/96.12 put over risk reversal, 2.25 vs. 95.80/0.54%
    • +7,500 0QG 96.06 puts, 7.5 ref 96.02
    • 13,300 0QN5 95.75 puts vs. 96.06/96.50 call spds, 0.0 net ref 96.04
    • 2,500 SFRM5 95.81/95.93/96.18 2x3x1 call flys ref 95.82
    • 4,000 SFRH5 95.62/95.68 put spds ref 95.71
    • 1,750 SFRH5 95.68 puts vs. 95.75/95.81 call spds
    • 2,500 SFRJ5 95.68/95.75/95.81 put flys ref 95.825
    • 1,500 0QM5 96.25/96.50/96.75 call flys ref 96.05
  • Treasury Options:
    • -25,000 TYH5 109 puts, 28 (unwind of +20k from 18-20 yesterday)
    • 6,000 TYH5 108.5 puts, 15 ref 108-31.5
    • 3,500 TYK5 111/113 call spds ref 108-30.5
    • 3,300 TYH5 106/107 put spds ref 108-30.5
    • 3,850 TYH5 108.5/109.25 strangles, 36 ref 108-30
    • 1,200 TYH5 107/108 2x1 put spds
    • 4,300 FVH5 105.25/105.5 put spds
    • 5,000 USH5 112 puts, 6 ref 114-26
    • 2,000 TYH5 109.5/110.5 1x2 call spds
    • 1,200 TYH5 107/107.5 3x2 put spds
    • 2,200 TYJ5 107/108.5 put spds ref 109-01