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The latest federal election opinion poll from Leger shows Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's centre-left Liberal Party maintaining a wide lead over the centre-right Conservatives. While the gap has narrowed a little since the poll carried out in November, it marks a 3% increase for the Liberals since the September election and a 5% decrease for the Conservatives in the same timespan.

  • Federal Polling: LPC: 36% (+1), CPC: 29% (+3), NDP: 19% (-3), BQ: 7% (-1), PPC: 5% (-), GPC: 3% (+1). Leger / December 5, 2021 / n=1319 / Online. (% Change With 7 Nov)
  • While the polling looks relatively good for Trudeau and his party, the PM remains in a somewhat tricky position politically. The failure to win an overall majority in the September election is viewed by many in the Liberal Party as a black mark against Trudeau's leadership. The PM has fought three general elections, and has failed to garner a majority in either of the last two contests.
  • While the prospect of a leadership challenge is unlikely any time soon, the minority gov't remains vulnerable to votes of no confidence in the Commons. Should polling turn significantly against the Liberals in the future it could spur its MPs into contemplating a change of leadership.