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Latest Tax Data Marginally Pushes Back On X-Date Fears

US

The Treasury raked in a total of $47B in "tax season" revenues on April 19. That included $2.7B in corporate taxes and a combined $44.4B in individual income tax, which was higher than the Apr 17 collection of $35B though as expected below April 18's $80B haul.

  • Overall, Wednesday's transactions boosted the Treasury's cash pile by a net $12.5B, with the TGA rising to $265B (up $178B in a week, and the highest in a month).
  • While some analysts had expected a very strong tax figure for the 19th, others were more skeptical; in general this should reduce concerns over an x-date being reached in early June.
  • Wrightson ICAP noted this morning that their subjective probability of such an outcome - which had risen to 20% following the prior day's weaker-than-expected tax take - had fallen to 15% on the basis of Apr 19's numbers.
  • The situation remains ambiguous; we reiterate that we'll have a clearer view by the end of next week, by which time the vast majority of April tax collections will be in.
  • Also note: our full Fed Balance Sheet Tracker will be released later today.

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