Le Pen Closes In But Macron Still Strong Favourite

The latest opinion polling from France ahead of the first round of the presidential election on 10 April shows right-wing Rassembelement National (RN) leader Marine Le Pen gaining on incumbent President Emmanuel Macron in a hypothetical second round match-up.

• The latest poll from Harris Interactive from 4 April shows Macron with 51.5% support to Le Pen's 48.5%, within the margin of error for either candidate to potentially win.
• First round polling continues to show a Macon-Le Pen contest on 24 April, repeating that of the 2017 election, as the most likely outcome. Macron polls around 26-28% in the first round, with Le Pen around 21-23%. Third-placed far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon polls around 14-17% and would require a major upset to make the run-off.
• Betting markets continue to have Macron as the strong favourite to win re-election, even if the implied probability of his victory has come down in recent days. A week ago on 29 March, Macron's implied probability of winning the election stood at 91.7% according to data from Smarkets. At present this number stands at 80%. Le Pen's implied probability of winning has risen from 7.1% to 17.5% in the same period of time.
• There is the prospect, though, that the close polling comes to benefit Macron. In the event of polls showing Macron set for a comfortable win, many moderate voters from the centre-left and centre-right, who may usually vote Socialist, Green or Les Republicains may have stayed at home on election day risking a shock. However, with Le Pen closing in on Macron, more of these moderate voters are likely to show up at the polls to vote for Macron in order to keep the far-right Le Pen out of the Elysee Palace.

Source: Harris Interactive, Opinionway, Ifop-Fiducial, Ipsos-Sopra Steria, Elabe, BVA, Odoxa, MNI.