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Le Pen Closes In On Macron, But Tight Polling Could Benefit Incumbent

FRANCE

Latest hypothetical second round opinion poll from Elabe has right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National leader Marine Le Pen just 5% behind incumbent President Emmanuel Macron.

  • Elabe poll: Presidential run-off election Macron (EC-RE): 52.5% (-3.5), Le Pen (RN-ID): 47.5% (+3.5). +/- vs. 19-21 March 2022. Fieldwork: 28-30 March 2022. Sample size: 1,531
  • The 47.5% support recorded by Le Pen is the highest level she has reached in any poll from Elabe since the 2017 election and puts her within touching distance of Macron.
  • Given the French political phenomenon known as the 'Republican front' (centrist voters of all stripes putting aside party allegiance to keep the far right out), the close polling could in fact benefit Macron's chances of re-election.
  • Earlier in March the election appeared to be a done-deal, with Macron leading by huge margins in second round polling. This could have resulted in leftist, centre-left and centre-right voters who do not support Macron in the first round not turning up to the polls in the second round, allowing Le Pen a shock victory on a low turnout.
  • However, tighter polls could encourage more non-Macron supporting moderates and leftists to turn out in a second round to keep Le Pen out, with the prospect of a right-wing presidency looming.
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