Leftist NUPES 1st Round Lead Grows Ahead Of Parliamentary Election: Poll

Latest polling ahead of the French parliamentary election taking place 12/19 June shows the leftist NUPES alliance's lead over President Emmanuel Macron's centrist 'Ensemble' alliance.

• Cluster17 poll: NUPES: 31%, Ensemble!: 26% (-1), RN: 20% (+1), LR and allies: 9% (-0.5), Reconquest: 5.5%, UPF: 2%. +/- vs. 10-12 May 2022. Fieldwork: 17-19 May 2022. Sample size: 2,950
• While Macron's alliance trails NUPES in first round polling, it is the incumbent's group that remains most likely to retain its majority in the National Assembly. France's two-round electoral system is used in parliamentary as well as presidential votes.
• As such, with elections in many seats likely to come down to a second round between a NUPES candidate and one from Ensemble, most centre-right and right-wing voters are likely to opt for Macron's candidate in order to keep the leftists out of power.
• Nevertheless, the formation of the leftist alliance presents Macron's party with its biggest political challenge to date. Macron's selection of Elisabeth Borne (a former Socialist Party member) as the new PM - replacing former Gaullist Jean Castex - is a clear signal that the president is attempting to burnish his centrist credentials to ward off the NUPES threat.