Light Bull Steepening Early On, Mann Eyed

Gilt futures tick higher early today, but the rally stops short of 100.00.

• Bulls couldn’t hold a move above that psychological level on Friday.
• Initial technical resistance now seen at Friday’s high (100.05), which protects key short-term resistance at the Mar 12 high (100.37).
• Bulls remain in technical control and bears need to force a break of the Mar 15 low (98.05).
• Cash gilt yields are flat to 2bp lower, light bull steepening seen.
• SONIA futures and BoE-dated OIS are around pre-gilt open levels.
• ~81bp of cuts are priced for ’24.
• Today will see the release of lower tier CBI data.
• An appearance from BoE’s Mann will be of more interest (14:15 London). The former hawkish dissenter voted in line with the consensus at last week’s MPC decision (8 MPC members voted for unchanged rates, 1 for a cut).
• Focus will fall on her explanation re: the change in voting stance.
• A reminder that Friday saw Fitch affirm the UK at AA-, with the outlook moved to stable from negative.
• That shouldn’t be a market mover.