June 26, 2024 15:09 GMT
Light Hawkish Moves In SONIA, ~43bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced
STIR
The pressure in wider core global FI markets sees some hawkish repricing in GBP STIRs.
- Front end BoE-dated OIS is quite sticky, still showing ~14bp of cuts for the August MPC meeting, while 80% odds are priced through the Sep gathering.
- Moves have been a little more pronounced further out the strip, with adjustments of 1.5-4.5bp seen through the later '24 to mid '25 contracts.
- SONIA futures are flat to -8.5, as the pullback from recent highs extends for most contacts.
- We flagged some potential short term-limitations for further dovish repricing earlier in the week.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Aug-24 | 5.058 | -14.2 |
Sep-24 | 5.002 | -19.8 |
Nov-24 | 4.867 | -33.3 |
Dec-24 | 4.774 | -42.6 |
Feb-25 | 4.638 | -56.2 |
Mar-25 | 4.550 | -65.0 |
May-25 | 4.432 | -76.8 |
Jun-25 | 4.342 | -85.8 |
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