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Limited USD/Asia Downside, IDR Underperforms

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs are lower in parts of the bloc, but downside momentum has been fairly limited. Cross asset signals have mostly been supportive in terms of higher regional equities and lower US yields, but this has not weighed on the USD materially. Tomorrow, South Korea BOP goods balance and current account data is on tap. Taiwan September trade figures are also due.

  • USD/CNH saw a brief blip sub 7.2700 on the back of broader USD softness, but this didn't have follow through. The pair is back around 7.2880 this afternoon. Weaker onshore equities are likely weighing at the margin, although the CSI 300 is away from session lows.
  • 1 month USD/KRW fell in early trade, but the low 1340 region saw USD support emerge once again. The pair has rebounded back to 1348/49 this afternoon. Onshore equities were +1% higher at one stage, but sit back at -0.20% in latest dealings.
  • The pull back in US nominal yields has done little to benefit the Indonesia rupiah in recent dealings. USD/IDR has pushed to fresh highs just above 15720. This puts the pair near December 2022 highs of 15763. Reuters reported that offshore USD buying is weighing on the rupiah. This would fit with recent outflow momentum from local bonds, up to last Friday we had seen -$311.5mn in outflows in October to date.
  • USD/THB got to 36.835 not long after the open, but didn't have much follow through. We last tracked just above 36.92, still around 0.50% stronger in baht terms versus yesterday's close. This leaves baht the strongest performer in EM Asia to date, but largely reflective of USD weakness post yesterday's close.
  • The Rupee has opened dealing a touch firmer on Tuesday, US Tsy Yields are lower and Oil has marginally pared recent gains. USD/INR has ticked away from the top of the recent range and sits at 83.25. Technically the pair remains in an uptrend, bulls target the high from 20 October 2022 (83.2975). Bears immediate focus is the 20-Day EMA (83.13), a break through here opens the 83 handle.
  • rends and is under performing the USD/Asia space. USD/MYR sits ~0.1% higher at 4.7335/65 and is at session highs, extending yesterday's ~0.4% gain. A reminder that the local data docket is empty today, the only data of note this week is Thursday's August Industrial Production print.
  • The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is little changed in early dealing on Tuesday and remains well within recent ranges. The measure sits ~0.5% below the top of the band. USD/SGD has fallen below the 20-Day EMA ($1.3658) this morning as broader USD weakness continues to weigh on the pair. A reminder that the docket is empty until Friday when the October MAS Monetary Policy Statement and the Advance read of Q3 GDP cross.

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