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Little Change In ECB Implied Rates Following French & Portuguese CPI

STIR
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While Bunds remain near intraday lows following the higher-than-expected French flash inflation data and stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP prints in major Eurozone economies, ECB implied rates are generally little changed.

  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price 70bps of cuts through the remainder of ’24 and still show 22bps of easing through the June meeting.
  • Moderations in French services and non-energy industrial goods CPI may be limiting the move in STIRs.
  • The Eurozone-wide inflation release is due at the top of the hour. MNI’s current tracking suggests an in-line reading of 2.4% Y/Y, assuming Italian flash inflation matches consensus at 1.1% Y/Y.
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While Bunds remain near intraday lows following the higher-than-expected French flash inflation data and stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP prints in major Eurozone economies, ECB implied rates are generally little changed.

  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price 70bps of cuts through the remainder of ’24 and still show 22bps of easing through the June meeting.
  • Moderations in French services and non-energy industrial goods CPI may be limiting the move in STIRs.
  • The Eurozone-wide inflation release is due at the top of the hour. MNI’s current tracking suggests an in-line reading of 2.4% Y/Y, assuming Italian flash inflation matches consensus at 1.1% Y/Y.