Little Change To EZ-Wide HICP Forecasts After German/French Data

National inflation data received so far in the January flash round has surprised to the upside in Spain, but came in slightly softer than expected overall in France and Germany. On balance, analysts have kept their forecasts for Thursday's Eurozone HICP print largely intact. Recall consensus coming into this week was HICP 2.7% Y/Y (2.9% prior) / HICP Core 3.2% Y/Y (3.4% prior):

Barclays:

• "Based on national releases in Germany, France, and Spain, we track EA HICP at 2.7% y/y (in line with forecast)"
• "NRW CPI suggests two major surprises relative to our forecast [...] Overall energy was softer than we thought [...] package holidays significantly beat our expectations, implying stronger services than we expected"
• Core HICP forecasts: Germany -0.54% M/M (3.4% Y/Y); France -0.51% M/M (2.74% Y/Y); Spain -0.97% M/M (3.32% Y/Y).

Morgan Stanley:

• "On headline, France was a significant miss but Spain was a beat, and Germany was broadly in line"
• "We keep our expectation for euro area headline HICP inflation at 2.7%Y"
• "There is a risk that we see slightly lower energy inflation and higher core inflation tomorrow than we initially thought"
• Core HICP forecasts: France -0.6% M/M

• "It looks like we are heading towards a number in line with consensus on core and slightly below on headline, although Italy ... could throw a spanner in the works"
• "It is hard to judge how the ECB will interpret this number, but using the X-11 method of seasonal adjustment it looks modestly stronger than what is needed to get inflation to 2%. Therefore, it supports our June rate cut call."

ING:

• On Germany: “The drop in German inflation will fuel speculation about an early ECB rate cut, but underneath a favourable headline number, there are still plenty of price pressures to worry about”
• On France: “Inflation continues to move in the right direction in France. Although a decline was expected, the slowdown in price growth is faster than anticipated”