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Little Changed After Retail Sales Data

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs are little changed (YM -11.0 & XM -10.0) after February Retail Sales rose 0.2% M/M in line with BBG consensus forecast. After a period of increased volatility over the November to January period, spending has levelled out with retail sales on average flat through the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, according to the ABS Head of Retail Statistics.

  • This message is consistent with that contained in the Q4 GDP release which showed that household spending growth had decelerated significantly from the Q3 rate on the back of RBA tightening and higher cost of living pressures.
  • Cash ACGBs are 9-10bp weaker with the curve unchanged and the AU/US 10-year yield differential -5bp at -24bp.
  • Swaps rates are 9bp higher but off session cheaps.
  • Bills strip is weaker with pricing -5 to -9.
  • RBA dated OIS is little changed with pricing 3-9bp softer across meetings beyond April.
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