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Little Changed, Debt Ceiling Impasse, More Meetings Scheduled

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs are little changed (YM flat & XM -1.0) after US tsys cheapened slightly in a whipsaw session ahead of the weekend as the debt ceiling impasse continued. Yields pushed to their highest levels since mid-March in early NY trade, continuing the trend from last week, before news of Republican negotiators walking out of talks saw tsys firm.

  • 2-year US tsy yield peaked at 4.35% before closing the week around 4.25%, approximately 25bp higher than Monday's opening rate. The 10-year exhibited a similar pattern, concluding at 3.67% and surpassing the upper boundary of the range observed in the past two months.
  • Staff-level talks have resumed, and President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy are due to meet on Monday.
  • Debt ceiling talks overshadowed comments by Fed Chair Powell, suggesting a potential pause at the upcoming June FOMC meeting.
  • Cash ACGBs opened flat to 1bp cheaper with the 3/10 curve 1bp steeper and the AU-US 10-year yield differential -3bp at -10bp.
  • Swap curve twist steepens with rates -1bp to +1bp.
  • Bills pricing is +2 to -1 with the strip steeper.
  • RBA dated OIS opened flat to 2bp softer across meetings.
  • The local calendar is light today.
  • Elsewhere, the PBOC Policy Decision is slated for today.
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