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AUSSIE BONDS: Little Changed, Headline Volatility, Cons & Bus Confidence Due

AUSSIE BONDS
BulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM flat & XM -0.5) are little changed. 

  • US equity markets gained without economic data or other catalysts as the investors look ahead to key US inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to US lawmakers.
  • Nonetheless, headlines continued to rattle markets. US tsys & stocks gapped lower in the Asia-Pac session after President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all imported steel and aluminium into the US. However, markets recovered as details were vague.
  • Risk-off sentiment reemerged as Israeli/Hamas hostage transfers appear to have hit a snag with both sides accusing each other of breaching ceasefire/transfer agreements.
  • Cash ACGBs are1bp lower to 1bp higher with the AU-US 10-year yield differential -9bps.
  • The swaps curve has twist-steepened, with rates 1bp lower to 1bp higher.
  • The bills strip is slightly mixed across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (126%), with the probability of a February cut at 88% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Today, the local calendar will see Westpac Consumer and NAB Business Confidence.
  • This week, the AOFM plans to sell A$400mn of the 2.75% 21 May 2041 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 bond on Friday. 
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ACGBs (YM flat & XM -0.5) are little changed. 

  • US equity markets gained without economic data or other catalysts as the investors look ahead to key US inflation data and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to US lawmakers.
  • Nonetheless, headlines continued to rattle markets. US tsys & stocks gapped lower in the Asia-Pac session after President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all imported steel and aluminium into the US. However, markets recovered as details were vague.
  • Risk-off sentiment reemerged as Israeli/Hamas hostage transfers appear to have hit a snag with both sides accusing each other of breaching ceasefire/transfer agreements.
  • Cash ACGBs are1bp lower to 1bp higher with the AU-US 10-year yield differential -9bps.
  • The swaps curve has twist-steepened, with rates 1bp lower to 1bp higher.
  • The bills strip is slightly mixed across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (126%), with the probability of a February cut at 88% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Today, the local calendar will see Westpac Consumer and NAB Business Confidence.
  • This week, the AOFM plans to sell A$400mn of the 2.75% 21 May 2041 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 1.50% 21 June 2031 bond on Friday.