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AUSSIE BONDS: Little Changed On A Data-Light Session

AUSSIE BONDS
BulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM +0.5) little changed on a data-light session.

  • “AUD/USD has further downside because ‘peak tariff’ has not been reached. Further wide-ranging tariffs are likely to be announced on April 2 when President Trump receives options for more duties from officials which “could be the catalyst to eventually pull AUD/USD down below 0.6000 in coming months” writes Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at CBA. (per BBG)
  • Cash ACGBs are flat with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +12bps.
  • Swap rates are slightly lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip is +1 to +2 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in April is given an 8% probability, with a cumulative 66bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 4.09%).  
  • The local calendar will be empty on Monday.  The next event on the local calendar is Sarah Hunter's, Assistant Governor (Economic) speech at the AFR Banking Summit on Tuesday.  
  • Next week, the AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 4.25% 21 December 2035 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2029bond on Friday. 
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ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM +0.5) little changed on a data-light session.

  • “AUD/USD has further downside because ‘peak tariff’ has not been reached. Further wide-ranging tariffs are likely to be announced on April 2 when President Trump receives options for more duties from officials which “could be the catalyst to eventually pull AUD/USD down below 0.6000 in coming months” writes Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at CBA. (per BBG)
  • Cash ACGBs are flat with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +12bps.
  • Swap rates are slightly lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip is +1 to +2 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in April is given an 8% probability, with a cumulative 66bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 4.09%).  
  • The local calendar will be empty on Monday.  The next event on the local calendar is Sarah Hunter's, Assistant Governor (Economic) speech at the AFR Banking Summit on Tuesday.  
  • Next week, the AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 4.25% 21 December 2035 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2029bond on Friday.