December 10, 2024 07:48 GMT
STIR: Little Movement In GBP STIRs, Just Under 85bp Of BoE Cuts Priced For '25
STIR
GBP STIR markets little changed after yesterday’s modest dovish repricing.
- SONIA futures flat to -1.0.
- BoE-dated OIS showing essentially 0bp of movement for next week, 20bp of cuts for Feb, 29bp of cuts through March and 84bp of easing through ’25.
- The latter remains off the multi-week dovish extreme of ~88bp but is notably more dovish than the ~55bp briefly printed in the days that followed the BoE’s November decision.
- The latest Indeed job ads findings provided several further warning signals surrounding the labour market. In terms of inflation feedthrough, the website noted that while “posted wage growth has eased but remains strong, particularly for lower-paid and in-person roles, but is likely to gradually wane heading into next year.” That latter seems to be consistent with the BoE's current preference for gradual cuts.
- Little of note on the UK calendar today, which will leave focus on cross-market spillover and the U.S. CPI release.
BoE Meeting |
SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)
Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Dec-24
4.699
-0.1
Feb-25
4.497
-20.3
Mar-25
4.412
-28.8
May-25
4.235
-46.5
Jun-25
4.148
-55.2
Aug-25
4.014
-68.6
Sep-25
3.978
-72.2
Nov-25
3.904
-79.6
Dec-25
3.860
-84.0
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