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Little Movement In GBP STIRs to Start The Week, Just Under 50bp Of '24 Cuts Priced

STIR
HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

A flat start for BoE-dated OIS, leaving ~14bp of cuts priced through the August MPC, ~21.5bp of cuts showing through the Sep MPC and ~47bp of cuts priced through year end.

  • SONIA futures are also little changed to start the week, operating on low volume.
  • U.S. PMIs knocked GBP STIRs away from last week’s dovish extremes on Friday.
  • UK fiscal headlines dominated over the weekend, but that should be more of a matter for the long end. We will cover that topic in our gilt open bullet.
  • Lower tier UK CBI trends data is due today, with the domestic data calendar looking a lot more subdued this week.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.062-13.8
Sep-244.987-21.3
Nov-244.833-36.7
Dec-244.730-47.0
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A flat start for BoE-dated OIS, leaving ~14bp of cuts priced through the August MPC, ~21.5bp of cuts showing through the Sep MPC and ~47bp of cuts priced through year end.

  • SONIA futures are also little changed to start the week, operating on low volume.
  • U.S. PMIs knocked GBP STIRs away from last week’s dovish extremes on Friday.
  • UK fiscal headlines dominated over the weekend, but that should be more of a matter for the long end. We will cover that topic in our gilt open bullet.
  • Lower tier UK CBI trends data is due today, with the domestic data calendar looking a lot more subdued this week.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.062-13.8
Sep-244.987-21.3
Nov-244.833-36.7
Dec-244.730-47.0