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Little Net Change In Fed Pricing On Latest Data

STIR

One of the more muted reactions to U.S. wage/labour market data in recent times, with the hawkish inferences from the preliminary Q1 ULC & productivity data failing to impact on FOMC-dated OIS.

  • That leaves ~35bp of cuts priced through the Dec FOMC, with a 25bp November cut a little over 90% priced.
  • The impact of Fed Chair Powell’s pushback against the idea of an imminent rate hike is probably being felt here, coupled with the speed and depth of the recent round of hawkish repricing, which has faded from extremes post-FOMC.
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One of the more muted reactions to U.S. wage/labour market data in recent times, with the hawkish inferences from the preliminary Q1 ULC & productivity data failing to impact on FOMC-dated OIS.

  • That leaves ~35bp of cuts priced through the Dec FOMC, with a 25bp November cut a little over 90% priced.
  • The impact of Fed Chair Powell’s pushback against the idea of an imminent rate hike is probably being felt here, coupled with the speed and depth of the recent round of hawkish repricing, which has faded from extremes post-FOMC.