Little New Information In MPC Statement, Focus Turns To Presser

The following summarises sell-side comments circulated in the interim between the NBP''s latest rate decision (unch. as expected) and Governor Adam Glapinski's press conference slated for 14:00BST/15:00CEST:

• Alior Bank say that the MPC statement was largely the same as in April, with the Council reaffirming its data-dependent stance. Today they will be looking for Governor Glapinski's comments on lower inflation outturns and any changes to his view that rate cuts are unlikely through the remainder of this year.
• ING write that the parts of the MPC statement related to monetary policy and its outlook were largely unchanged from the previous document. They expect Governor Glapinski to point to the risks associated with the rebound in inflation in the coming months, which will be used to justify keeping rates on hold. They expect the NBP to stand pat on rates through end-2024 and lower them by 75-100bp in 2025.
• Goldman Sachs describe the statement as "moderately dovish," even as the Council pointed to familiar sources of uncertainty. They expect the presser today to be more informative than the statement.
  
• JP Morgan note that "the message in the statement is essentially the same as before." They think that the NBP will likely repeat the same message until we get the July/August CPI numbers revealing the extent of the impact from energy prices. They expect two 25bp rate cuts in November and December.
  
• mBank note that there were no dovish surprises in the statement, despite the fact that some of the uncertainty around regulatory factors has dissipated. They argue that on a closer look the statement appears to be marginally more hawkish, with the Council explicitly pointing to the impact of fiscal uncertainty on inflation expectations and pointing to a marked increase in wages.
  
• Millennium Bank believe that today's presser will reaffirm the need to stabilise interest rates, sending a similar message to that included in yesterday's statement. They assume that rates will remain unchanged this year, with an outside risk of a 25bp cut in case of a strong appreciation of the zloty. Otherwise, they pencil in 100bp worth of cuts for 2025.
  
• Pekao assess that the tone of the statement remained moderately hawkish and they stick with their call for no interest-rate cuts until the end of 2025. They expect Governor Glapinski to keep his hawkish stance, with wage pressures coming to the fore as the key factor justifying on-hold rate decisions.
  
• PKO suggest that Governor Glapinski may drop some hinds on the outlook for monetary policy. They will be looking for comments on lower-than-expected inflation outcomes and reduced uncertainty surrounding energy prices in 2H24. They expect the Governor to reiterate that rates will likely stay unchanged until the year-end.
  
• Santander stress that the MPC yet again mentioned the uncertainty around fiscal and regulatory matters, despite piling evidence about the government's plans. The final paragraphs about monetary policy were left entirely unchanged. They still expect rate cuts to re-commence only in mid-2025.