Little Reaction To On Hold MAS, USD/SGD Wedged Between Key EMAs

USD/SGD sits a touch above NY closing levels from Friday in latest dealings. We were last in the 1.3420/25 region, highs for the session rest at 1.3430, while earlier lows were 1.3406. The impact of the MAS policy statement from the Jan meeting has been negligible on SGD FX. A slightly firmer USD backdrop against the majors amid lower US equity futures, higher oil prices, has arguably been a bigger driver of the currency.

• All MAS policy parameters were unchanged, which was widely expected. The accompanying statement appears to be setting the stage for ultimately easier policy settings, particularly around the outlook on lower core inflation into 2025. Still, there appear to be any hint of a near term shift (i.e. at the April policy meeting), with risks around the growth and inflation backdrop described as evenly balanced.
• For USD/SGD, current spot levels are close to the 100-day EMA (1.3428). On the topside the 200-day EMA is near 1.3465/70. On the downside, the 20-day is close to 1.3375. Broader USD sentiment will be a key driver, although with MAS's current stance of a positive NEER slope, there is scope for SGD outperformance over a multi-month horizon.
• The NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) sits -0.50% below the top end of the policy band, little changed since the MAS announcement.