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Won Weakens Back Past 1300

KRW

It has mostly been one-way traffic to the upside for 1 month USD/KRW. The pair last tracked around 1302, which is +0.40% above NY closing levels. This leaves the 50-day MA (1296.30) on the downside intact for now.

  • Won weakness comes despite a positive lead for equities onshore (currently +1.20% for the Kospi), and modestly higher US equity futures. The wedge between KRW and the Kospi has re-widened.
  • Headwinds are present from higher USD/CNH levels, which is back above 6.7400. Rising covid case numbers in China is unsettling sentiment somewhat.
  • The first 10-day export number for South Korea also showed softening detail in terms chip/tech exports (-5.1%). Exports to China also remained in negative territory (-2.8%).
  • The headline export result was resilient, at 23.3% YoY for the first 10 days, but on an average daily basis this was more modest at +8.7% YoY.
  • The trade deficit was large at just under $7.7bn for the first 10 days of August, but this should improve as the month progresses.
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