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LNG Flex from US Supply, Fuel Switching and Demand Destruction

LNG

Timera Energy analyse the ‘stack’ of market flexibility that drives the price responsiveness of different sources of supply & demand flexibility that act to clear the LNG market.

  • They see US exports are a key source of flex, but supply is otherwise very inelastic. High volumes of US hub indexed cargoes can be cancelled if netback prices fall below variable cost. There is otherwise very limited capacity for short term respond to price with liquefaction trains operating at full capacity.
  • The flex on the demand side is driven by European coal to gas switching and less dynamic Asian switching from gas to oil switching, pipeline vs LNG and power sector switching. Outright demand and industrial demand destruction at high prices also plays a key role.


Source: Timera Energy

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