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LNG: Tighter LNG Market on Lower US Supply & Egypt Demand: Goldman

LNG

The global LNG natural gas market will be tighter than previously forecast due to lower US supply and increased Egyptian demand, according to a Goldman Sachs note.

  • TTF is expected in the low-to-mid €30/MWh range next year with NW European gas storage to reach 95% full by winter 2024-2025, and nearly 50% full by end of winter.
  • Production from the US Golden Pass LNG export facility is now likely the start in 2026 under a base case scenario compared to a previous target of first LNG in 1H 2025.
  • Russian pipeline flows through Ukraine will drop to zero by January 2025 and the recent increase in Egypt LNG imports could be extended through summer next year.
  • Europe could be susceptible to TTF price spikes toward €65-85/MW under a colder-than-average scenario for winter.

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