MNI: GERMANY OCT FLASH MANUF PMI 42.6 (FCST: 40.8); SEP 40.6

MNI: FRANCE OCT FLASH MANUF PMI 44.5 (FCST: 45.0); SEP 44.6

MNI: mBridge Will Promote Cross-border Asia Payments - PBOC's Zhou

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY666.3 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1286 Thurs; +2.64% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY798.9 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

MNI: FRANCE OCT MANUF SENTIMENT AT 92

US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR +5.47M TO 426.0M OCT 18 WK

MNI: US NAR: SEP EXISTING HOME SALES 3.84M SAAR

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Facing More Internal Dissent And Departures

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Faces More Pressure To Resign

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

LNG: Win24/25 Price Downside Limited with Market 27m Tonnes Short: ICIS

LNG
Energy BulletsBulletPower BulletsCommodities

The global LNG market is forecast 27m tonnes short for Win24/25 compared to a previous forecast of 29m tonnes short limiting price downside, according to ICIS. Colder weather in Q4 provides upside price risk requiring Europe to improve its global market share with price-sensitive buyers losing out.

  • Sum25 is expected 7m tonnes undersupplied compared to previous 5m tonnes short expected.
  • Win24/25 LNG sendout is forecast up 12% from the previous forecast to 678TWh for the EU11 & GB region driven by expectations of a colder-than-expected start to the peak season. LNG sendout for Sum25 is expected up 3.8% to 580TWh.
  • Spain will account for the main share of EU imports over winter at 24% with France at 18%.
  • In September, spot LNG imports were the highest of the year at 27% and 5 percentage points higher than August. September imports were the second lowest monthly volume of the year at 5.2m tonnes and 18% below last year.
  • Total supplies to the region have been revised up 3% to 2,008TWh for Win24/25 with 34% from LNG and 31% piped supply from Norway. Total gas supplies for Sum25 were revised 10% lower to 1,744TWh.
187 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

The global LNG market is forecast 27m tonnes short for Win24/25 compared to a previous forecast of 29m tonnes short limiting price downside, according to ICIS. Colder weather in Q4 provides upside price risk requiring Europe to improve its global market share with price-sensitive buyers losing out.

  • Sum25 is expected 7m tonnes undersupplied compared to previous 5m tonnes short expected.
  • Win24/25 LNG sendout is forecast up 12% from the previous forecast to 678TWh for the EU11 & GB region driven by expectations of a colder-than-expected start to the peak season. LNG sendout for Sum25 is expected up 3.8% to 580TWh.
  • Spain will account for the main share of EU imports over winter at 24% with France at 18%.
  • In September, spot LNG imports were the highest of the year at 27% and 5 percentage points higher than August. September imports were the second lowest monthly volume of the year at 5.2m tonnes and 18% below last year.
  • Total supplies to the region have been revised up 3% to 2,008TWh for Win24/25 with 34% from LNG and 31% piped supply from Norway. Total gas supplies for Sum25 were revised 10% lower to 1,744TWh.