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LNG: Win24/25 Price Downside Limited with Market 27m Tonnes Short: ICIS

LNG
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The global LNG market is forecast 27m tonnes short for Win24/25 compared to a previous forecast of 29m tonnes short limiting price downside, according to ICIS. Colder weather in Q4 provides upside price risk requiring Europe to improve its global market share with price-sensitive buyers losing out.

  • Sum25 is expected 7m tonnes undersupplied compared to previous 5m tonnes short expected.
  • Win24/25 LNG sendout is forecast up 12% from the previous forecast to 678TWh for the EU11 & GB region driven by expectations of a colder-than-expected start to the peak season. LNG sendout for Sum25 is expected up 3.8% to 580TWh.
  • Spain will account for the main share of EU imports over winter at 24% with France at 18%.
  • In September, spot LNG imports were the highest of the year at 27% and 5 percentage points higher than August. September imports were the second lowest monthly volume of the year at 5.2m tonnes and 18% below last year.
  • Total supplies to the region have been revised up 3% to 2,008TWh for Win24/25 with 34% from LNG and 31% piped supply from Norway. Total gas supplies for Sum25 were revised 10% lower to 1,744TWh.
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The global LNG market is forecast 27m tonnes short for Win24/25 compared to a previous forecast of 29m tonnes short limiting price downside, according to ICIS. Colder weather in Q4 provides upside price risk requiring Europe to improve its global market share with price-sensitive buyers losing out.

  • Sum25 is expected 7m tonnes undersupplied compared to previous 5m tonnes short expected.
  • Win24/25 LNG sendout is forecast up 12% from the previous forecast to 678TWh for the EU11 & GB region driven by expectations of a colder-than-expected start to the peak season. LNG sendout for Sum25 is expected up 3.8% to 580TWh.
  • Spain will account for the main share of EU imports over winter at 24% with France at 18%.
  • In September, spot LNG imports were the highest of the year at 27% and 5 percentage points higher than August. September imports were the second lowest monthly volume of the year at 5.2m tonnes and 18% below last year.
  • Total supplies to the region have been revised up 3% to 2,008TWh for Win24/25 with 34% from LNG and 31% piped supply from Norway. Total gas supplies for Sum25 were revised 10% lower to 1,744TWh.