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Local Analysts On CPI Report

CANADA
Hike in July still likely
  • BMO: BoC policymakers won't breath a huge sigh of relief after this report as core inflation remains sticky and has yet to show signs of a durable slowdown. The odds of a July rate hike might be slightly lower now, but if the rest of the data hold up over the next 2 weeks, a hike still looks likely.
  • RBC: Absent a large downside surprise [in GDP and BoC surveys] , we continue to expect the bank to hike the overnight rate by another 25bp in July, before stepping back the sideline for the rest of this year.
  • TD: The BoC will be relieved that core inflation momentum did not continue to build over May, but the 3.7% annualized rate over the last three months is still too high for comfort. We think today's report is consistent with another 25bp hike in July but takes some pressure off the Bank to continue tightening beyond 5.00%.
Wait for September
  • CIBC: Today's data don't change the fact that inflation is running hotter than the Bank's prior April MPR forecasts. However, the tamer core readings suggest that policymakers may be able to wait a little longer rather than following up June's hike with another move as early as July, and we therefore continue to expect policymakers to wait until September to deliver a final 25bp hike.
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