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Local Analysts On Jan CPI Helping BoC’s Conditional Pause

CANADA
  • BMO: This milder report will provide the BoC with some comfort on their decision to move to a conditional pause, acting as a strong antidote to the run of robust growth figures seen in recent weeks.
  • CIBC: The deceleration in CPI adds to evidence that the BoC doesn't need to engineer a recession to get inflation under control. With inflation expected to see a sticky annual pace between 2-3% throughout 2H23, CIBC maintain call for no further hikes, but also no cuts until early 2024.
  • RBC: The 3-month average growth in the preferred median and trim inflation measures are running ~3.5% annualized basis. We continue to expect the BoC to keep on hold until the end of this year.
  • TD: After recent employment and spending data had complicated the slowing economic momentum needed to get inflation back to target, today’s improving inflation data will help the BoC not feel rushed to jump back in with another rate hike just yet.
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