Local Analysts React To Latest Set Of Macro Data

Polish analysts released their snap reactions to a batch of Poland's June macroeconomic data, which showed that real wage growth turned positive for the first time since July 2022:

• mBank write that the labour market was the biggest surprise in today's package of data, with weaker than expected employment growth (+0.4% Y/Y) coupled with below-forecast but still strong wage growth (+11.9% Y/Y). They note that today's data outturns do not bode well for Q2 GDP.
• ING comment that the labour market remains tight, supporting strong wage growth, despite a modest Y/Y increase in employment. They expect 2H2023 to see a rebound in consumption. They expect PPI deflation as we head into 2H2023, alongside a continuation in CPI disinflation.
  
• Pekao point to a slight downside surprise in wages and a notable miss in employment. They say that we should see Y/Y PPI deflation in July, which will support continued CPI disinflation. They assess that Q2 was a "crisis" on for Polish industry and expect that "excessive" 2023 GDP forecasts will be revised lower tomorrow, as they maintain their +0.4% Y/Y projection.
  
• PKO write that data signals from the end of 2Q2023 showed weak momentum in the real economy, but "the first M/M increase in seasonally adjusted industrial output since February could be a positive signal." They expect a revival in consumer demand in 2H2023 based on the return of positive real wage growth, record low unemployment and improving consumer sentiment.
  
• The Polish Economic Institute expect double-digit wage growth in 2023 and 2024 alongside a falling inflation. They note that the annual decline in industrial output was smaller than in May, as activity was stronger and base effects helped.