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Local Press Flags Reliability Issues With Key Economic Data

HUNGARY
  • Local press Nepszava cast doubt on recent inflation figures, citing analysts in criticising the approach to energy prices in calculating CPI. The piece cites the unusual dismissal of a key statistician in November that specialised in GDP compilation as well as the methodology surrounding energy bills - and in particular the -33.5% Y/Y reading for natural gas prices. The pieces flags that inflation may have been massaged to single digits (9.9% in October), fulfilling Orban's pledge to bring inflation below 10% by year-end.
  • The piece further cites sources in reporting that the removal of a stats official was tied to the reporting of unfavourable economic data in Q2. Sources told Telex.hu that the stats agency received criticism that they were "not assisting the government's work".
  • The finance ministry are set to establish a working group committed to ensuring fiscal discipline, and will hold veto rights over the cabinet in making decisions concerning the budget.
  • Both industrial production and retail sales data came in below expectations (-2.8% vs. Exp. -2.1% Y/Y) this morning, raising further concerns over economic performance across Q4. MNB minutes take focus later today, set for release at 1300GMT/0700ET.
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