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Local Sell-Side Desks Strike Pessimistic Notes On Polish Disinflation


Several Polish sell-side desks have released their quick comments on flash CPI data released this morning. The general reception of the data is fairly pessimistic, with analysts highlighting the role of base effects and continued quickening of core inflation, possibly to around +12.2%-12.3% Y/Y.

  • mBank analysts tweet that "inflation in March was +16.2% Y/Y (above consensus and our forecast of +15.8%). Is it already disinflation? Not really, we would say, not really. At the moment, the only big groups [of goods and services] with declining prices are energy (-0.7% M/M) and fuel (-1.8% M/M). Food prices increased strongly +2.3% M/M. (...) Core inflation is not lagging behind. We are estimating +12.3% Y/Y."
  • PKO research desk note that "inflation declines in March but slightly slower than expected. Headline CPI fell to +16.2% Y/Y (PKO: +15.6%, consensus +15.8%) from +18.4% in February, mostly because of slower fuel price hikes (due to statistical base effect). Core inflation probably accelerated.
  • Pekao describe the data as "definitely more bitter than sweet." They note that "thanks to the base effect for non-core elements, headline CPI inflation eased significantly in March to +16.2% Y/Y... but core inflation accelerated to around +12.2% Y/Y. Inflation momentum remains strong, M/M growth was +1.1%."
  • ING analysts say that "CPI started its decline, from +18.4% Y/Y to +16.2% (ING +16.0%, consensus +15.8%). The reasons are not too optimistic: the reversal of wartime fuel purchases, decline in administered energy prices. At the same time, core inflation and food inflation are rising."

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