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Lockdowns Throw Sand Into Gears Of Economic Recovery

IDR

Spot USD/IDR has extended its rally, with the rupiah cementing its position as the worst performer in the Asia EM basket this week. The rate last sits +47 figs at IDR14,384 and a clearance of Aug 27 high of IDR14,445 would turn focus to Aug 20 high of IDR14,473. Meanwhile, a pullback under the 50-DMA at IDR14,235 would open up Oct 29 low of IDR14,150.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last seen +12 figs at IDR14,428. Bulls need a push through Nov 3 high of IDR14,462 before taking aim at IDR14,522, which capped gains on Aug 26 & 27. Bears would be pleased by a slide through the 50-DMA at IDR14,274.
  • Indonesia's GDP growth slowed more than forecast in Q3, as lockdowns imposed to contain the outbreak of Covid-19 Delta variant took their toll. The economy expanded 3.51% Y/Y after a 7.07% increase in the previous quarter, missing consensus forecast of +3.88%.
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