Logan Eyeing A June Hike Suggests Higher Bar To A Pause

Fed hike pricing has shifted in a hawkish direction as Dallas Fed Pres Logan's comments today appear to have nudged the burden of proof for the June FOMC toward those pushing for a pause vs another 25bp hike.

• She's quoted by multiple media outlets as saying that while the Fed has made progress on inflation, "the data in coming weeks could yet show that it is appropriate to skip a meeting. As of today, though, we aren’t there yet.” That saw June hike pricing rise briefly to 40% probability, from 20%.
• Recall Logan has been floating the idea of "less frequent steps" in the hike path, and has said that one potential approach could be to resume hiking after a pause at some point should the data warrant.
• Given that seemingly patient approach, she might have been perceived as at least modestly supportive of a June pause, to wait and see what happens and reserve the right to resume hikes later in the year - but her comments suggest that the bar to a pause by the FOMC has risen at least somewhat since the May meeting.
• That's in contrast to the prevailing narrative coming out of May's FOMC, which suggested the bar to hiking was set quite high (a notion not discouraged by Powell in the press conference) - indeed MNI's review of the meeting was called "High Bar To Further Hikes".