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Long End of The Curve Stabilizes, While ST Rates Keep Reaching New Highs

CEE
  • In the past week, while LT interest rates have stabilized in the CEE region, the short end of the curve keeps retracing higher amid rising inflation risks.
  • CEE central banks have not hesitated to surprise markets with aggressive hikes in their last meetings in order to curb the inflationary pressure.
  • As a result, the dramatic surge in short-term rates have led to a sharp flattening of the yield curves, now inverted in Czech Republic and Poland.
  • As yields curve have historically led the business cycle by 6 months, recession fears have been rising.
  • CEE governments have recently introduced new Covid restrictions in order to limit the downside risk of a fourth wave of infections, which should weigh on growth expectations in the medium term.
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