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Looking Ahead To CPI Inflation

CANADA
  • Released Tuesday at 0830ET, headline CPI is seen moderating from 5.9% to 5.4% Y/Y in February, with most analysts grouped unusually tightly between 5.3-5.4.
  • There are two outliers further to the downside (4.5 and 5.0) although the survey excludes Scotia’s 0.8% M/M in NSA terms (cons 0.6), which we estimate would leave 5.6-5.7% Y/Y depending on rounding.
  • The smaller survey for the BoC’s preferred median and trim measures has both falling 0.2pps to an average 4.85% Y/Y in what would be the softest since Mar’22 but with recent trends watched more closely after recently hovering around 3.5% annualized.

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