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Looking ahead to US CPI

BONDS
  • Core fixed income has moved higher this morning, but remains in yesterday's range. The main headlines have concerned the impact of the hot weather across Europe with the Rhine river not impassible at a key point that could affect energy imports into Germany, as well as other international trade.
  • However, the focus remains on US CPI. Consensus has headline CPI slowing to just 0.2% M/M from an unwind in energy prices, whilst core CPI is seen easing from 0.7% to 0.5% M/M but after three sizeable beats. Analysts see various driving forces for the moderation in core CPI but only a limited easing in shelter after once again surprisingly to the upside in June at multi-decade M/M highs. The market reaction to Friday’s payrolls beat shows the potential for large moves, with significant two-sided risk to this release. The full MNI CPI preview is available here.
  • Fed's Evans and Kashkari are due to speak at 16:00BST / 11:00ET and 19:00BST / 14:00ET respectively to discuss the economy and inflation. These will both be worth watching after today's CPI print. BOE Chief Economist Pill will be holding an online Q&A on the BOE's reaction to the rising cost of living at 17:00BST / 12:00ET.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-8 today at 119-23+ with 10y UST yields down -1.5bp at 2.765% and 2y yields down -3.4bp at 3.238%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.69 today at 156.87 with 10y Bund yields down -3.4bp at 0.883% and Schatz yields down -2.4bp at 0.547%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.41 today at 117.67 with 10y yields down -2.8bp at 1.940% and 2y yields up 4.1bp at 1.931%.
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