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Looking to Test Overnight Highs

US TSY FUTURES
  • Tsy futures paring losses again - still reacting to ceasefire talks in Gaza mediated by Qatar (see 0915ET bullet)
  • Curves steeper with short to intermediates outperforming: 3M10Y +2.267a t -59.941, 2Y10Y +2.593 at -17.111.
  • Tsy Dec'23 10Y futures near steady at 106-11, yield +.0134 at 4.8579, initial technical resistance at 106-29 (20-day EMA).
  • Short end bid sees projected rate hikes into early 2024 inch lower: November holding at 1.6%, w/ implied rate change of +.4bp to 5.333%, December cumulative of 4.4bp at 5.372%, January 2024 cumulative 7.4bp at 5.403%, March 2024 at 3.5bp at 5.364%. Fed terminal at 5.400% in Feb'24.

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