Lots of focus on the UK inflation data......>

UK DATA: Lots of focus on the UK inflation data this morning with the Bloomberg

consensus looking for an uptick to 1.6% Y/Y from 1.3% previously. However,

despite the median coming in at 1.6%, the mode is at 1.7% and all 6 of the "top

ranked" forecasters for the print are looking for the print to be in a 1.6-1.8%

range - indicating there may be some upside risks here. There is also a fairly

long tail of forecasters looking for a miss, however.

- As our data team point out, the uptick is expected due to a rise in energy

prices due to a rise in the Ofcom price cap. The PMI points to upside risks but

the BRC shop price index points to downside risk. These discrepancies could

partly explain the spread of forecasts for this print.

- The market is likely to be very sensitive to this print, so any large

surprises could see a decent move - either to the upside or downside.