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Low Prices Could Boost LNG Imports to India by 7-8% in 2024: S&P Global

LNG

India's LNG imports are expected to rise 7%-8% in 2024 if prices stay pressured due to higher power, industrial and transportation sector demand and with strengthening infrastructure spending according to S&P Global.

  • Platts JKM averaged $13.801/mt from Jan 3 to Dec 22 this year but could possibly fall below $10/MMBtu in summer 2024.
  • LNG price weakness should limit gas-based power units using domestic gas with installed capacity suggesting 30m to 35m mt/yr of LNG demand according to an LNG industry source.
  • Regasified LNG consumption for the power sector is expected to continue to rise in 2024 after increasing 128% to 7.4mmcm/d on the year in Jan-Oct.
  • Gujarat State Petroleum Corp. has recently bought a cargo for Jan delivery at $11.10-$11.20/mmBtu for delivery to Mundra, Indian Oil purchased a cargo at $11.20-$11.30/mmBtu for delivery to Ennore and GAIL bought a cargo at $11.40-$11.50/mmBtu for delivery to Dabhol.
  • Higher utilization at the LNG terminals is expected while the commissioning of HPCL's Chhara and GAIL's Ratnagiri breakwater facility will likely increase capacity to 52.5m mt/year.
  • India's economic growth outlook for 2024 also stays robust with a potential boost in economic activity ahead of the general election.


Source: S&P Global

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