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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA DATA
The last of the Q2 data before Wednesday’s national accounts are published signal some upside risk to the 0.3% q/q consensus forecast. The ABS estimates that total public demand will contribute 0.5pp and net exports +0.8pp compared with expectations of 0.3pp.
- The Q2 current account surplus came in close to expectations at $7.7bn down from an upwardly revised $12.5bn in Q1. The narrowing was due to lower commodity prices but the headline was helped by a smaller net income deficit ($23.4bn). The trade surplus narrowed $8bn to $31.4bn with the services deficit improving to $0.16bn as exports rose 12.8% q/q driven by the post-pandemic recovery in tourism and education.
- While exports of goods fell 7% q/q in nominal terms, volumes rose 2.5% q/q demonstrating the impact of lower prices for Australia’s main exports. The terms of trade deteriorated 7.9% q/q, the largest quarterly drop since 2009, to be down 12.7% y/y. While it is off its highs, the terms of trade remains elevated.
- The real trade surplus rose $4.5bn on the quarter after declining $1.67bn in Q1. The ABS estimates that this will result in a net export contribution to GDP of 0.8pp after it detracted 0.2pp in Q1. Real goods and services exports rose 4.3% q/q in Q2 whereas imports only 0.7%.
Goods & services volumes y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
Terms of trade
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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