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MNI: FRANCE FINAL FEB MANUF PMI 45.8 (FLASH: 45.5); JAN 45.0

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MNI: ITALY FEB MANUF PMI 47.4 (FCST: 46.7); JAN 46.3

MNI: SPAIN FEB MANUF PMI 49.7 (FCST: 51.4); JAN 50.9

MNI: TURKEY FEB CPI +2.27% M/M

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

GERMANY: Economy Ministry Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast As Expected

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FOREX: Lower Yields Continue to Boost Yen, AUDJPY Fresh 2025 Lows

FOREX
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  • Lower core yields continue to provide supportive price action for the Japanese Yen, and as noted, USDJPY is narrowing the gap to its key technical support point, located at 148.65. Souring risk sentiment is weighing specifically on AUDJPY, which has extended its intra-day decline to 0.95% in recent trade, printing at the year’s lowest level and a 5-month low for the cross.
  • Additionally, soft trendline support (drawn from the August 06 low) is being breached which underpins the bearish theme, and moving average indicators remain in a bear-mode position.
  • AUDJPY should remain in focus this week, as Australia and Tokyo CPI are scheduled over the next two sessions. For Australia, the market expects headline CPI to increase from 2.5% y/y to 2.6% y/y.
  • The Tokyo CPI reading comes off the back of an acceleration in January national CPI, with February’s print expected to decelerate slightly to 3.2% Y/Y (vs 3.4% prior). Stronger data in Japan has been a key driver of the hawkish BOJ repricing, with Q4 GDP and December wages data surprising to the upside in recent weeks.
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  • Lower core yields continue to provide supportive price action for the Japanese Yen, and as noted, USDJPY is narrowing the gap to its key technical support point, located at 148.65. Souring risk sentiment is weighing specifically on AUDJPY, which has extended its intra-day decline to 0.95% in recent trade, printing at the year’s lowest level and a 5-month low for the cross.
  • Additionally, soft trendline support (drawn from the August 06 low) is being breached which underpins the bearish theme, and moving average indicators remain in a bear-mode position.
  • AUDJPY should remain in focus this week, as Australia and Tokyo CPI are scheduled over the next two sessions. For Australia, the market expects headline CPI to increase from 2.5% y/y to 2.6% y/y.
  • The Tokyo CPI reading comes off the back of an acceleration in January national CPI, with February’s print expected to decelerate slightly to 3.2% Y/Y (vs 3.4% prior). Stronger data in Japan has been a key driver of the hawkish BOJ repricing, with Q4 GDP and December wages data surprising to the upside in recent weeks.
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