MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Sales Undermine Bull Theme
Price Signal Summary – Impulsive AUD Selling Undermines Bull Theme
- Recent weakness in the S&P E-Minis contract has resulted in a breach of a number of important supports; 6014.00, the Feb 10 low, and 5935.50, the Feb 3 low. The sharp move down signals scope for a deeper retracement and has exposed the next key support. The trend condition in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains bullish and - for now - the latest shallow retracement appears corrective. The contract has pierced support at the 20-day EMA, at 5417.56. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
- A bullish trend condition in GBPUSD remains intact - for now - and this suggests the latest pullback is likely a correction. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position. A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Support at 148.65, the Dec 3 ‘24 low, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the bearish condition. AUDUSD traded lower last week. The impulsive sell-off undermines a recent bullish theme. Price is once again trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and the move down has exposed support at 0.6171, the Feb 4 low.
- A corrective phase in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal traded lower last week. Price has breached the 20-day EMA, at $2879.8. This signals scope for a deeper short-term retracement. The current bearish trend condition WTI futures remains intact and last week’s sell-off reinforces a bear theme. The move lower has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low.
- Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. For now, a short-term bullish theme remains intact, following recent gains. Price has cleared resistance at 132.97, the Feb 13 high, and this signals scope for a climb towards 133.71. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The contract traded higher last week and attention is on resistance at 93.39, the Feb 13 high. It has been pierced.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 1.0677 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.0594 High Dec 9 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.0437/0533 50-day EMA / High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
- PRICE: 1.0413 @ 06:09 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 1.0360 Low Feb 13
- SUP 2: 1.0335 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - 26 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.0272 Low Feb 4
- SUP 4: 1.0233 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - 26 bull run
EURUSD is trading closer to its most recent lows and below the Feb 26 low. The pair has breached support at 1.0401, the Feb 19 low, and price is trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This highlights a possible bearish reversal signal. A continuation lower would open 1.0272, Feb 4 low. For bulls, key short-term resistance is 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would reinstate a recent bull theme and open 1.0630, the Dec 6 high.
GBPUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 1.2880 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.2811 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.2716 High Feb 26
- PRICE: 1.2604 @ 06:24 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 1.2538 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
- SUP 3: 1.2333 Low Feb 11 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.2249 Low Feb 3
A bullish trend condition in GBPUSD remains intact - for now - and this suggests the latest pullback is likely a correction. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a potentially stronger bull cycle. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2538, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg.
EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 0.8378 High Feb 6 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 0.8361 50.0% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8325 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8306 High Feb 26 and a key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 0.8263 @ 06:36 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 0.8241 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
- SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg
A bearish condition in EURGBP remains intact following last week’s move lower. The cross has pierced a key support at 0.8248, the Feb 3 low. A clear breach of this level would strengthen the bearish condition and pave the way for an extension towards 0.8223 , the Dec 19 low and the next key support. To the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.8306, the Feb 26 high. Clearance of this hurdle would suggest a possible base and a reversal.
USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 152.97 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 151.47 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 151.02 Intraday high
- PRICE: 150.43@ 07:03 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 148.57 Low Feb 25 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
- SUP 3: 147.22 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 146.95 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Support at 148.65, the Dec 3 ‘24 low, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the bearish condition and pave the way for a move towards 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 151.47, the 20-day EMA. A break of it would suggest scope for a stronger correction.
EURJPY TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 161.35 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 161.19 High Feb 13
- RES 2: 159.65 50-day EMA and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 157.97 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 156.53 @ 07:34 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 154.80 Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
- SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
- SUP 4: 152.72 1.00 proj of the Jan 24 - Feb 10 - 13 price swing
A bearish theme in EURJPY remains present and Friday’s print below support at 155.61, the Feb 10 low, reinforces this theme. A resumption of the bear leg and a clear breach of the support would expose the key medium-term handle at 154.42, the Aug 5 ‘24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important technical break. Initial firm resistance to watch is 157.97, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is 159.65, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6309 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6218 @ 07:56 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 0.6193 Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
AUDUSD traded lower last week. The impulsive sell-off undermines a recent bullish theme. Price is once again trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and the move down has exposed support at 0.6171, the Feb 4 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and suggest scope for a test of the bear trigger at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6309, the 50-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4548 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4472 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- PRICE: 1.4441 @ 07:59 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 1.4288 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The USDCAD correction that started Feb 14 remains in play for now and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Resistance at 1.4380, the Feb 10 high, has been breached. This opens 1.4472 next and 1.4548, Fibonacci retracement points. The short-term bear trigger has been defined at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4288, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight an early reversal signal.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Intact Despite Pullback
- RES 4: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 134.06 High Dec 23 ‘24
- RES 2: 133.71 High Feb 5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 133.23 Intraday high
- PRICE: 132.54 @ 05:45 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 133.46 High Feb 28
- SUP 2: 131.83/26 Low Feb 24 / 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. For now, a short-term bullish theme remains intact, following recent gains. Price has cleared resistance at 132.97, the Feb 13 high, and this signals scope for a climb towards 133.71, the Feb 5 high. A break of this level would strengthen a bullish theme. The short-term bear trigger has been defined at 131.26, the Feb 19 low. The first important support lies at 131.83, the Feb 24 low.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Key Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 118.258 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 118.100 High Jan 2
- RES 2: 118010 High Feb 28
- RES 1: 117.980 High Feb 3 / 5 and a reversal trigger
- PRICE: 117.700 @ 06:04 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 117.422 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117.240/116.870 Low Feb 24 / 19 and a S/T bear trigger
- SUP 3: 116.700 Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: 116.550 Low Jan 24
Bobl futures traded higher last week and despite the latest pullback, the contract maintains a firmer tone. Price has cleared resistance at 117.600. This undermines a recent bearish theme and instead, the move higher exposes resistance at 117.980, the Feb 3 / 5 high and a key hurdle for bulls. It has been pierced, a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 117.467, the 20-day EMA.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Bullish Structure
- RES 4: 107.170 High Dec 20
- RES 3: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 ‘24 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 2: 107.045 High Feb 3 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 106.975 High Feb 10 / 28
- PRICE: 106.885 @ 06:12 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 106.812 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 106.755/630 Low Feb 24/20 and a key near term support
- SUP 3: 106.600 Low Jan 31
- SUP 4: 106.515 Low Jan 30
A bull cycle that started on Jan 15 in Schatz futures remains in play, and the pullback from the early February highs appears corrective - for now. The latest recovery opens 106.975, the Feb 10 high, ahead of the next key resistance at 107.045, the Feb 3 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would instead expose the key short-term support at 106.630, the Feb 20 low. First support lies at 106.812, the 20-day EMA.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Short-Term Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 94.24 2.00 proj of the Feb 20 - 24 minor price swing
- RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 93.83 High Feb 6 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 93.51 High Feb 26
- PRICE: 93.43 @ Close Feb 28
- SUP 1: 92.72 Low Feb 25
- SUP 2: 92.22 Low Feb 24
- SUP 3: 91.79 Low Feb 20 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 91.61 Low Jan 21
A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact and the latest pullback appears to have been a correction. The contract traded higher last week and attention is on resistance at 93.39, the Feb 13 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a climb towards 93.83, the high on Feb 6 and a bull trigger. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 91.79, Feb 20 low. A break of it would highlight a bear threat.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.98/121.00 61.8% of Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg / High Feb 7
- RES 1: 120.74 High Feb 28
- PRICE: 120.9 @ Close Feb 28
- SUP 1: 119.60/118.95 Low Feb 24 / 19
- SUP 2: 118.65 Low Jan 24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 117.16 Low Jan 13 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and the pullback between Feb 7 - 19, appears to have been a correction. Attention is on 120.98 (recently pierced) and 121.88 further out, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would instead highlight a reversal and the end of the current bull cycle. Initial firm support has been defined at 118.95, the Feb 19 low.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Shallow Correction
- RES 4: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
- RES 3: 5588.38 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 5574.57 2.382 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 1: 5555.00 All-time high (cont), Feb 18
- PRICE: 5496.00 @ 06:24 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 5394.00 Intraday lowLow Feb 28
- SUP 2: 5328.00 Low Feb 106
- SUP 3: 5266.18 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 5112.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support
The trend condition in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains bullish and - for now - the latest shallow retracement appears corrective. The contract has pierced support at the 20-day EMA, at 5417.56. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement - note that the 50-day EMA lies at 5266.18. The EMA represents a key area of support. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 5574.57 next, a Fibonacci projection.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 ‘24 and key resistance
- RES 2: 6035.99/6166.50 50-day EMA / High Jan 19
- RES 1: 5984.50 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5973.75 @ 07:20 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: 5848.00 Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4 ’24
- SUP 4: 5730.00 Low Sep 18 ‘24
Recent weakness in the S&P E-Minis contract has resulted in a breach of a number of important supports; 6014.00, the Feb 10 low, and 5935.50, the Feb 3 low. The sharp move down signals scope for a deeper retracement and has exposed the next key support at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 6038.96, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (K5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: $83.40 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 3: $80.46 - High Jul 18 ‘24
- RES 2: $76.78/79.98 - High Feb 11 / High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $74.61 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $72.87 @ 07:06 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: $71.92 - Low Feb 26
- SUP 2: $70.96 - Low Dec 20
- SUP 3: $70.09 - Low Dec 6
- SUP 4: $69.59 - Low Oct 29 and a key support
Brent futures traded lower last week and the outlook remains bearish. The move down has resulted in a clear break of support at $73.54, the Feb 4 low and a bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the current bear price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on a move towards $70.96, the Dec 20 low. On the upside, firm resistance has been defined at $76.78, the Feb 11 high.
WTI TECHS: (J5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $80.07 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 3: $79.07 - 3.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 2: $77.86 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $71.27/73.33 - 50-day EMA / High Feb 11 and key resistance
- PRICE: $69.92 @ 07:15 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: $68.36 - Low Feb 26
- SUP 2: $67.75 - Low Dec 20 ‘24
- SUP 3: $66.41 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $65.41 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 and a key support
The current bearish trend condition WTI futures remains intact and last week’s sell-off reinforces a bear theme. The move lower has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started on Jan 15 and paves the way for an extension towards $67.75, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $73.33, the Feb 11 high.
GOLD TECHS: Corrective Phase Remains In Play
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2976.8 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2920.8/2956.2 - High Feb 27 / 24 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2862.9 @ 07:20 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: $2804.6 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27
A corrective phase in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal traded lower last week. Price has breached the 20-day EMA, at $2879.8. This signals scope for a deeper short-term retracement, possibly towards the next important support around the 50-day EMA, at $2804.6. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle.
SILVER TECHS: Has Traded Through The 20- and 50-day EMAs
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.484/33.397 - High Feb 25 / 14 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $31.225 @ 08:04 GMT Mar 3
- SUP 1: $30.815 - Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: $30.691/29.704 - Low Feb 3 / Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Silver weakness last week resulted in a move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The move down - for now - appears corrective, however, a clear break of the 50-day average, at $31.399, would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $30.691, the Feb 3 low. On the upside, the short-term bull trigger has been defined at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend.