Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
UK
UKRAINE (BBC): “Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has spoken to US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after a meeting between the two leaders in Washington descended into a row about US support for Ukraine.”
UKRAINE (BBC): “The Thales missile factory in Belfast is to supply 5,000 air defence missiles to Ukraine, the Prime Minister has announced. The deal is worth up to £1.6bn and will involve recruiting 200 additional staff.”
EU
EU (MNI): “The European Commission is working on a new joint-funding instrument for about EUR100 billion to help pay for a significant boost to European spending as a proposal for Thursday's Brussels summit, a well-placed source told MNI, with EU member states likely to pay for the lion’s share for any increase in military budgets.”
EU (POLITICO): “"We will give a mandate to the European Commission to define our capacity needs for a common defense," Macron said in an interview published in several French newspapers on Sunday. "This massive funding probably reaches hundreds of billions of euros," he said.”
UKRAINE (BBG): “French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer are working on a plan to reach a one-month truce in Ukraine, including ground and maritime operations as well as energy infrastructure.”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “More countries have signed up to Britain and France’s plan to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal, Keir Starmer said.”
UKRAINE (BBC): “UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced a four-point plan to work with Ukraine to end the war and to defend the country from Russia. The UK, France and other countries will step up their efforts in a "coalition of the willing" and seek to involve the US in their support for Ukraine, he said.”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “In a lengthy social media thread on Saturday following the dismaying Washington meeting, Zelenskyy struck a conciliatory tone, expressing gratitude for American aid while emphasizing that Ukraine still needs “security guarantees” in order to achieve a “just and lasting peace.””
UKRAINE (BBG): “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is willing to meet with US President Donald Trump if invited again "to solve real problems".”
DEFENCE (POLITICO): “A pooling of France’s nuclear warheads to help protect Europe won’t happen ― not if Marine Le Pen can help it. The far-right leader on Saturday vigorously opposed plans to build a stronger, more integrated European defense, including by sharing France’s nuclear umbrella.”
GERMANY (DW): “Germany's Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens look set to be able to continue their coalition in the northern state of Hamburg following a regional election Sunday. According to preliminary official results, the SPD took 33.5% of the vote compared to 39.2% in 2020, but remained the largest party in Hamburg. The center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) of chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz gained ground, coming in second with 20%.”
GERMANY (DW): “Likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz has said he will find "ways and means" for Benjamin Netanyahu to visit Germany. Israel's Prime Minister is wanted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity.”
AUSTRIA (DW): “Austria's liberal NEOS party on Sunday approved a deal that paves the way for a three-way coalition government led by the center-right under Christian Stocker who is set to become chancellor next week.”
IRELAND (BBC): “The taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) has been invited to the White House by US President Donald Trump to celebrate St Patrick's Day next month. The meeting is scheduled to take place on 12 March.”
US
FED (MNI): “Policymakers don't yet know whether the recent productivity surge will last and monetary policy should react cautiously, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Friday.”
TRADE (MNI): “New tariffs on imports from China, Canada and Mexico would noticeably boost consumer prices in an "immediate and persistent" manner, a new study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta on Friday finds.”
TRADE (BBG): “US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Mexico has proposed matching Washington's tariffs on China, and urges Canada to do the same.”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “In a sometimes combative interview Sunday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio posited that the thing that matters most when it comes to the Russia-Ukraine war is getting Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table — and everything else is just noise.”
POLITICS (POLITICO): “Sen. Lisa Murkowski delivered a scorching rebuke Saturday of President Donald Trump’s explosive exchange with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a rare voice of Republican dissent as party members lined up in support of the president’s increasingly combative relationship with Ukraine.”
FINANCE (BBC): “US President Donald Trump has revealed the names of five cryptocurrencies that he says he'd like to be included in a new strategic reserve to make the US "the Crypto Capital of the World".”
AGRICULTURE (BBG): “American farmers will soon start receiving the first tranche of $30 billion in funding approved by Congress to fight a downturn in the markets, according to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.”
POLITICS (POLITICO): “A federal judge ruled Saturday that President Donald Trump’s firing of a federal workforce watchdog was illegal — teeing up a Supreme Court showdown over the president’s claim to nearly absolute control of the executive branch.”
OTHER
KOREA (DW): “The USS Carl Vinson has entered the port of Busan, South Korea, in a show of force expected to enrage Pyongyang. The move comes just days after North Korea tested strategic cruise missiles.”
ISRAEL (BBG): “Israel has halted all humanitarian aid and imports to the Gaza Strip after a six-week truce with Hamas expired and Hamas rejected a US proposal to extend the ceasefire.”
CHINA
ECONOMY (MNI): “China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose by 1.1 points to 50.2 in February, back above the breakeven 50 mark again to hit a three-month high, as manufacturers resumed production following the Spring Festival, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed Saturday.”
TRADE (BBG): “China may target agricultural and food products in its countermeasure in response to US threats that it will include an extra 10% tariffs on Chinese products, according to Global Times, citing an unidentified source.”
ENERGY (BBG): “China’s liquefied natural import gas imports fell to a five-year low last month on weak demand and higher European prices luring cargoes there.”
FINANCE (SECURITIES DAILY): “China issued CNY596 billion of new local government special bonds during the first two months of the year, up from CNY403 billion over the same period last year, reported Securities Daily.”
POLICY (CHINA FUND NEWS) “Authorities will promote consumption and developing AI, and other emerging sectors during the upcoming “Two Sessions” this week, China Fund News reported, citing analysts' expectations.”
ECONOMY (PBOC): “The People’s Bank of China will guide banks to support private and small business through increased lending using structural monetary policy tools, and further facilitate diversified financing channels via stocks, bonds and loans, according to a meeting held by the PBOC and four other departments.”
CHINA MARKETS
MNI: PBOC Net injects CNY102 Bln via OMO Friday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY284.5 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.50%. The operation led to a net injection of CNY102 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY182.5 billion today, according to Wind Information.
- The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) rose to 2.4274% at 10:01 am local time from the close of 2.3282% on Thursday.
- The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 45 on Thursday, the same as the close Wednesday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1738 Fri; -0.99% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1738 on Friday, compared with 7.1740 set on Thursday. The fixing was estimated at 7.2849 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
AUSTRALIA S&P GLOBAL FEB. F MANUFACTURING PMI 50.4; FEB P 50.6; JAN. 50.2
AUSTRALIA Q4 COMPANY PROFITS +5.9% Q/Q; EST 1.8%; Q3 -4.9%
AUSTRALIA Q4 INVENTORIES +0.1% Q/Q, EST. 0%; Q3 -0.7%
AUSTRALIA FEB. ANZ JOB ADS -1.4% M/M; JAN. +1.3%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 TERMS OF TRADE +3.1% Q/Q; EST. +1.4%; Q3 +2.5%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 EXPORT VOLUMES RISE 1.3% Q/Q; Q3 -1.5%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 IMPORT VOLUMES FALL 1.7% Q/Q; Q3 +2.6%
JAPAN JIBUN BANK FEB. MANUFACTURING PMI 49; JAN. 48.7
CHINA FEB. CAIXIN MANUFACTURING PMI 50.8; EST. 50.4; JAN. 50.1
MARKETS
US TSYS: Tsys Yields Cheaper, Curve Bear-Steepens
- Tsys futures are trading lower today, although within Friday's ranges, volumes are high, however this is largely linked to roll activity, with no notable tsys flows to note, there was however a large buyer in fed funds April 25 futures, 95.685 in 34k. TU is -01 at 103-14+, while TY is trading -02 at 111-01 and now -09 from Friday's highs.
- Cash tsys curves are slightly steeper, with yields 2-3bps cheaper. The 2yr is +2bps at 4.009%, while the 10yr is the worst performing across the curve +2.7bps at 4.235%. The 2s10s is +0.6bps at 22.128.
- Earlier, Zelenskiy expressed willingness to meet Trump for a constructive dialogue to address serious issues, following a tense White House encounter and emphasized Ukraine’s readiness to finalize a minerals deal with the US that was recently paused. Speaking in London on Sunday after a European security summit, Zelenskiy underscored the need for equal dialogue, avoided an apology for prior friction, and defended Ukraine’s dignity while affirming openness to any cooperative format with the US.
- later today we have S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI & ISM data
JGBS: Futures Weaker & Near Lows, US Tsys Weighing
JGB futures are holding weaker at session cheaps, -30 compared to the settlement levels.
- Outside of the previously outlined Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI data, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
- Cash US tsys are 2-3bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after an emergency security summit in London on Sunday raised bets that haven demand could lose its appeal should prospects improve for an end to fighting in Ukraine.
- Nevertheless, this weakness has started to reverse as some anticipate that slower US growth expectations could see traders increasingly price in a potential Federal Reserve rate cut as soon as June.
- “Moreover, the risk of a government shutdown from March 15 appears greater than ever.” (per BBG)
- Cash JGBs are flat (40-year) to 3bps cheaper (5-10-year zone) across benchmarks. The benchmark 10-year yield is 2.6bps higher at 1.404% versus the cycle high of 1.466%.
- The 30-year yield is 0.6bp higher at 2.366% after hitting a high of 2.371%, the highest since 2008.
- Swap rates are 1-2bps higher. Swap spreads are mixed.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Labour Market, Capital Spending, Company Profits, Monetary Base and Consumer Confidence data alongside 10-year supply.
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper With US Tsys, More Q4 GDP Partials Tomorrow
ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -4.0) are weaker after today’s stronger-than-expected domestic data drop, namely Q4 Inventories and Company Profits.
- However, the key driver of today’s movements has been US tsys. Cash US tsys are 2-3bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after an emergency security summit in London on Sunday raised bets that haven demand could lose its appeal should prospects improve for an end to fighting in Ukraine.
- Nevertheless, this weakness has started to reverse as some anticipate that slower US growth expectations could see traders increasingly price in a potential Federal Reserve rate cut as soon as June.
- “Moreover, the risk of a government shutdown from March 15 appears greater than ever.” (per BBG)
- Cash ACGBs are 3bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +10bps.
- Swap rates are 3bps higher.
- The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing flat to -3.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Q4 Current Account Balance and Net Exports of GDP, and January Retail Sales data alongside the RBA Minutes of the February Policy Meeting.
- This week, the AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 4.25% 21 March 2036 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 1.00% 21 December 2030 bond on Friday.
NZGBS: Closed Slightly Cheaper, US Tsys Driving Seat
NZGBs closed showing modest weakness, with benchmark yields 1-2bps higher.
- With the domestic calendar relatively light, the driver of today’s movements has been US tsys. Cash US tsys are 2-3bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after an emergency security summit in London on Sunday raised bets that haven demand could lose its appeal should prospects improve for an end to fighting in Ukraine.
- “Treasury futures’ early selloff is likely to reverse in North American trading, as the domestic focus is for slower US growth with traders pricing for the next Federal Reserve rate cut to arrive as early as June. Moreover, the risk of a government shutdown from March 15 appears greater than ever. This would add a downbeat tone to the growth outlook. Meanwhile, recent housing and jobs data is a reminder of the headwinds the US economy is facing.” (per BBG)
- Swap rates closed with a twist-steepener, 1bp lower to 1bp higher.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Building Permits data.
- On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 0.25% May-28 bond, NZ$200mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond and NZ$50mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.
ASIA STOCKS: Equities Higher On Strong China Data
- Hong Kong’s HSI jumped 1.2%, driven by a 2% rise in the HS China Enterprises Index, with tech giants like Alibaba (+4.6%), Tencent (+3.7%), and Meituan (+2.5%) leading the charge, while the debut of Mixue Bingcheng’s shares soared 40% after its $444 million IPO. The Shanghai Composite edged up 0.3% to 3,332.27, and the CSI 300 rose as much as 1% before paring some gains, supported by stronger-than-expected February PMI data reflecting increased new orders amid tariff-driven export rushes, though the ChiNext jumped nearly 2.9%.
- In Japan the Nikkei 225 climbed 1.6%, while the TOPIX jumped 1.80&, while Australia’s ASX 200 advanced 0.8% reflecting optimism around potential US rate cuts and a pause in yen appreciation.
- However, Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 1.5%, and Bangkok’s SET fell 0.7%, while South Korean markets were closed for a holiday.
- Investors are focused on China’s upcoming National People’s Congress, hoping for a significant stimulus package to counter US tariffs—set to rise to 20% on Chinese goods this week—though uncertainty lingers as traders watch for last-minute tariff negotiations and broader geopolitical developments.
ASIA STOCKS: Foreign Investors Continue Selling Asian Equities
Large outflows on Friday for South Korea, while outflows have increased across Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia & Philippines.
- South Korea: Recorded -$1.26b in outflows Friday bringing the 5-day total to -$2.15b. YTD flows remain negative at -$3.85b. The 5-day average is -$431m, worse than the 20-day average of -$142m and the 100-day average of -$120m.
- Taiwan: Taiwan was out on Friday. YTD flows remain negative at -$5.15b. The 5-day average is -$499m, significantly worse than the 20-day average of -$167m and the 100-day average of -$103m.
- India: Recorded +$128m in inflows Thursday, bringing the 5-day total to -$1.66b. YTD outflows remain heavy at -$12.40b. The 5-day average is -$332m, worse than the 20-day average of -$219m and the 100-day average of -$236m.
- Indonesia: Posted -$176m in outflows Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$622m. YTD flows remain negative at -$1.34b. The 5-day average is -$124m, worse than the 20-day average of -$56m and the 100-day average of -$35m.
- Thailand: Saw -$145m in outflows Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$300m. YTD flows remain negative at -$525m. The 5-day average is -$60m, worse than the 20-day average of -$14m, but better than the 100-day average of -$19m.
- Malaysia: Registered -$145m in outflows Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$285m. YTD flows are negative at -$1.20b. The 5-day average is -$57m, worse than the 20-day average of -$25m, but better than the 100-day average of -$28m.
- Philippines: Recorded -$59m in outflows Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$83m. YTD flows remain negative at -$259m. The 5-day average is -$17m, worse than the 20-day average of -$7m, and in line with the 100-day average of -$7m.
Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows
OIL: Crude Higher As Easing Of Russian Sanctions Appears Elusive
Oil prices are higher during today’s APAC trading but are off their intraday high coinciding with the US dollar rising from its lows. The market realises that a peace in Ukraine that allows sanctions on Russian energy to be eased is a long way off after the difficult meeting at the White House. WTI is up 0.6% to $70.18/bbl after reaching $70.60 earlier, while Brent is 0.6% higher at $73.21/bbl following a high of $73.67. The USD index is still down 0.2%.
- Europe is planning ways to fund an increase in defence spending and appears to have the start of a proposal for a one-month sea and air ceasefire in Ukraine. According to UK PM Starmer there is a “coalition of the willing” with countries offering forces as peacekeepers.
- Crude has been alternating between being concerned about the negative impact of increased protectionism on global demand and the possible effect on supplies. Bloomberg reports that around 80% of the US’ oil imports could be at risk from trade and sanctions policies. 10% tariffs on purchases of energy from Canada and Mexico are due to be imposed on Tuesday.
- News from the Global Times today said that China is considering its options with the US vowing to add an extra 10% tariff on imports from China also from Tuesday. US agricultural products may be targeted and both tariff and non-tariff measures are being examined.
- The oil market has been concerned about demand in China for some time, given that it is the world’s largest crude importer. China holds its National People’s Congress from Wednesday and further government stimulus measures will be looked for.
- Later the Fed’s Musalem speaks and February US manufacturing PMI/ISM print. The ECB’s Buch appears and European February manufacturing PMIs and euro area preliminary February CPI data are released.
LNG: Gas Prices Lower Heading Towards Spring
Natural gas prices were lower on Friday. European gas fell 1.9% to EUR 44.30 to be down 16.6% in February as hopes rose of more flexible EU refilling regulations ahead of next winter and the weather warmed. There were also nascent hopes of a peace deal for Ukraine that would allow Russian gas flows through Ukraine again. Prices troughed late in February at EUR 41.09.
- The argument between the White House and President Zelensky makes a peace deal for Ukraine less likely, but the meeting between the latter and the EU appears to have been tentatively more promising with plans to increase Ukraine’s defences and for a month-long ceasefire at sea and in the air. UK PM Starmer has said he will discuss the results with US President Trump. Zelensky has also said he’s prepared to sign the natural resources deal with the US, which includes energy.
- US gas fell 2.9% to $3.82 on Friday but was still over 24% higher last month. It reached a peak of $4.35 on February 20 and trended lower to month end. Prices had been supported by increased heating demand from a cold snap but the forecast for much of the US is showing above-average temperatures in the second week of March, while the West Coast is likely to see cooler weather, according to Maxar.
- US lower-48 gas production rose 2.9% y/y on Friday while demand fell 10.7% y/y.
- North Asian gas demand has been robust due to colder weather after a mild start to the heating season.
Gold Post Modest Gains After First Weekly Loss for Year.
- Gold finished last week down for the first time in 2025, falling by 2.6%.
- Earlier last week, gold hit all time highs of US$2,951.73 and has trended lower since.
- Gold has exhibited its ‘safe-haven’ status given the uncertainty around the implementation of tariffs by President Trump in 2025, which followed on from last 2024 when it performed due to expected rate cuts.
- The moves in recent trading sessions comes despite the fundamental reasons for its rally remaining in place.
- The move lower last week still sees gold up over 8% for the year and opens at $2,857.83 gaining gradually throughout the day to reach @2,866.25
- The move lower however sees gold breach the 20-day EMA of $2,878.48, marking the first breach of this technical level this year.
- The moving averages are still trending upwards, a sign that the bullish momentum remains after eight successive weeks of gains.
- It appears that the US is moving closer to imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China as soon as this week, a move that could see support for gold return.
FOREX: US$ Weakens After Friday’s Gains As Europe Outperforms
The US dollar is unwinding Friday’s gain during today’s APAC session. The BBDXY USD index is down 0.25% after rising 0.3% at the end of last week following the clash between the White House and President Zelensky which increases global uncertainty. Yesterday European leaders worked on a plan to increase Ukraine’s defences and for a month-long ceasefire at sea and in the air. UK PM Starmer has said he will discuss the results with US President Trump. This has supported European currencies, which have generally outperformed today.
- EURUSD is up 0.4% to 1.0418 after falling to a low of 1.0360 on Friday. EURGBP is up 0.2% to 0.8264 after a trough of 0.8241.
- Aussie and kiwi have made gains against the greenback today helped by a better risk tone and a pickup in China’s PMIs for February. AUDUSD is up 0.3% to 0.6228, close to the intraday high, after closing at 0.6209 on Friday. NZDUSD is 0.2% higher at 0.5610 leaving AUDNZD 0.1% higher at 1.1099 after breaking 1.1100 briefly a number of times.
- The yen has strengthened moderately against the US dollar after weakening on Friday. USDJPY is down 0.1% to 150.44, close to its intraday low. EURJPY is 0.3% higher at 156.69 after a high of 157.30.
- Equities are generally stronger with the Hang Seng up 1.5%, Nikkei +1.1% and CSI 300 +0.4%, while the S& e-mini is little changed. Commodity prices are higher with WTI +1.1% to $70.529/bbl, copper +1.0% and iron ore up to around $103/t.
- Later the Fed’s Musalem speaks and February US manufacturing PMI/ISM print. The ECB’s Buch appears and European February manufacturing PMIs and euro area preliminary February CPI data are released.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 03/03/2025 | 0700/0200 | * |  TR | Turkey CPI |
| 03/03/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** |  ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/03/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** |  IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/03/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** |  FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/03/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** |  DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** |  EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 03/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | IT | Deficit to GDP 2024/ GDP Y/Y | |
| 03/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** |  GB | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 03/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | BOE M4 |
| 03/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 03/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (p) |
| 03/03/2025 | - | *** |  US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 03/03/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 03/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 03/03/2025 | 1500/1000 | * | US | Construction Spending |
| 03/03/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 03/03/2025 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 03/03/2025 | 1735/1235 | US | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 04/03/2025 | 2330/0830 | * |  JP | Labor Force Survey |
| 04/03/2025 | 0001/0001 | * | GB | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 04/03/2025 | 0030/1130 |  AU | RBA Meeting Minutes | |
| 04/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | AU | Balance of Payments: Current Account | |
| 04/03/2025 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Retail Trade |
| 04/03/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 04/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Unemployment |