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CANADA: LPC Leadership Contest Enters Final Days

CANADA
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Amid the market and news-cycle focus on tariffs, Canada's governing centre-left Liberal Party (LPC) is entering the final days of its leadership contest to elect the successor to Justin Trudeau as party head and prime minister. Voting among registered Liberals got underway on 26 Feb and concludes on Sunday 9 March at 1500ET (2000GMT, 2100CET). The winner of the contest will be announced in Ottawa afterwards.

  • Each of Canada's 338 electoral ridings will be allocated 100 points, with these points allocated by the vote share for each candidate within that riding. The first candidate to 17,151 points (an overall majority) is the winner. If no candidate crosses this threshold in the first count, the last-placed candidate is eliminated, and their second preferences distributed.
  • Former BoC and BoE governor Mark Carney is the favourite (with a 98% implied probability on Polymarket) ahead of former finance minister Chrystia Freeland. While Carney is not a sitting MP, he could still serve as LPC leader and PM (John Turner served as PM for several months in 1984 without being an MP).
  • On 4 March, Trudeau confirmed talks would take place with his successor as LPC leader, but did not provide a timeframe for the handover of power.
  • Parliament returns from prorogation on 24 March, which requires a Speech from the Throne and a confidence vote. With the LPC sitting as a minority gov't, and the Quebec nationalist Bloc Quebecois and left-wing New Democratic Party confirming they will vote against the Liberals, the new leader could call a snap general election. 
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Amid the market and news-cycle focus on tariffs, Canada's governing centre-left Liberal Party (LPC) is entering the final days of its leadership contest to elect the successor to Justin Trudeau as party head and prime minister. Voting among registered Liberals got underway on 26 Feb and concludes on Sunday 9 March at 1500ET (2000GMT, 2100CET). The winner of the contest will be announced in Ottawa afterwards.

  • Each of Canada's 338 electoral ridings will be allocated 100 points, with these points allocated by the vote share for each candidate within that riding. The first candidate to 17,151 points (an overall majority) is the winner. If no candidate crosses this threshold in the first count, the last-placed candidate is eliminated, and their second preferences distributed.
  • Former BoC and BoE governor Mark Carney is the favourite (with a 98% implied probability on Polymarket) ahead of former finance minister Chrystia Freeland. While Carney is not a sitting MP, he could still serve as LPC leader and PM (John Turner served as PM for several months in 1984 without being an MP).
  • On 4 March, Trudeau confirmed talks would take place with his successor as LPC leader, but did not provide a timeframe for the handover of power.
  • Parliament returns from prorogation on 24 March, which requires a Speech from the Throne and a confidence vote. With the LPC sitting as a minority gov't, and the Quebec nationalist Bloc Quebecois and left-wing New Democratic Party confirming they will vote against the Liberals, the new leader could call a snap general election.