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Lula Maintains Polling Lead Over Bolsonaro

BRAZIL

Former president Luiz Inácio 'Lula' da Silva has maintained his lead over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in polling for the Brazilian presidential election in October.

  • Bolsonaro has surged in polling since March due to a strong reaction to policies designed to woo rural voters and attenuation of the COVID-19 crisis.
  • This trend appears to have stabilised and a strong win for Lula in the second round runoff remains the most likely electoral outcome.
  • Today's Ipespe poll, based on fieldwork from May 16-18, shows Lula 61% to Bolsonaro 39% in the second round runoff.
  • Betting markets also show Lula maintaining a substantial gap to Bolsonaro.

Figure 1: 2022 Brazilian Presidential election winner (smarkets)

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Former president Luiz Inácio 'Lula' da Silva has maintained his lead over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in polling for the Brazilian presidential election in October.

  • Bolsonaro has surged in polling since March due to a strong reaction to policies designed to woo rural voters and attenuation of the COVID-19 crisis.
  • This trend appears to have stabilised and a strong win for Lula in the second round runoff remains the most likely electoral outcome.
  • Today's Ipespe poll, based on fieldwork from May 16-18, shows Lula 61% to Bolsonaro 39% in the second round runoff.
  • Betting markets also show Lula maintaining a substantial gap to Bolsonaro.

Figure 1: 2022 Brazilian Presidential election winner (smarkets)