Lula Maintains Polling Lead Over Bolsonaro Ahead Of Oct 2 Election

An Atlas poll released today, based upon research from the 22nd to 26th of September, shows former President Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva maintaining a significant lead over incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro ahead of the October 2 general election.

• First round: Lula 48.3%, Bolsonaro 41%.
• Second round: Lula 51.3%, Bolsonaro 43.7%
• The poll shows Lula remains short of the 50% required to avoid a second round runoff, seen as potentially crucial to avoiding political violence.
• Although Brazil has seen relatively little electoral violence since 1985, there has been an uptick in politically motivated killings in recent weeks.
• Analysts have suggested that Bolsonaro has been laying the groundwork for challenging an election loss by questioning the reliability of electronic voting machines.
• Former Presidential candidate Guilherme Boulos: "In recent weeks, Bolsonaro’s allies in the Armed Forces have managed to force the Superior Electoral Court to allow them to do a “parallel inspection” of the electoral process, opening the door for them to question, within a weakened institutional framework, a vote against the President on Oct 2."