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Lula Maintains Strong Lead Over Bolsonaro

BRAZIL
EM BulletPolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletEmerging MarketsPolitical Market News

According to an Ipespe poll released today Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has maintained his lead over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro ahead of the Brazilian presidential elections on October 2.

  • In the first round of voting Ipespe projects a comfortable margin of 15%. The poll comes amid speculation that Bolsonaro may be preparing to declare the electoral result unreliable.
  • Last week wires reported that Bolsonaro had revoked an invitation from an EU delegation of electoral observers scheduled to be part of a team overseeing the election.
  • First round projection:
    • Lula (PT, centre-left): 49%
    • Bolsonaro (PL, right): 34%
    • Gomes (PDT, centre-left): 9%
  • In the projected second round run-off Ipespe project Lula extending the margin to 61%-39%.
Figure 1: Second round run-off projection (Ipespe)

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According to an Ipespe poll released today Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has maintained his lead over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro ahead of the Brazilian presidential elections on October 2.

  • In the first round of voting Ipespe projects a comfortable margin of 15%. The poll comes amid speculation that Bolsonaro may be preparing to declare the electoral result unreliable.
  • Last week wires reported that Bolsonaro had revoked an invitation from an EU delegation of electoral observers scheduled to be part of a team overseeing the election.
  • First round projection:
    • Lula (PT, centre-left): 49%
    • Bolsonaro (PL, right): 34%
    • Gomes (PDT, centre-left): 9%
  • In the projected second round run-off Ipespe project Lula extending the margin to 61%-39%.
Figure 1: Second round run-off projection (Ipespe)