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Lula Makes Progress in Negotiations With Congress

LATAM
  • The USD Index is trading lower and sits within range of the mid-December multi-month lows at 103.448. The downtick in USD/JPY remains the primary driver, with the Bank of Japan’s YCC tweak prompting broad JPY strength across the board.
  • BRL is underperforming in early trade, but the decline is very mild. USD/BRL trades either side of the 5.30 level, wholly respecting the week’s range so far.
  • Latam newsflow is relatively quiet, with few fresh developments in either Mexico or Brazil. The lower house in Brazil are set to vote on Lula’s latest spending bill, with the proceedings starting from 9am local time. Separately, the Budget Committee issues their judgement on Castro’s budget report.
  • Estadao have today reported that the government-elect are still seeking votes to approve the transition bill through the lower house, which should keep politics a focus for now.
  • Some focus still being paid to reports out late yesterday that the top court in Brazil had given Lula’s administration the edge in budget negotiations with Congress, after the court “gave the president-elect more leverage to negotiate additional spending plans”. The ruling should also enshrine the bolsa familia payments for the near future.
  • Mexico’s October retail sales came in ahead of expectations, rising 3.8% on the year vs. Exp. 3.6%, and rose 0.7% on the month vs. Exp. 0.3%.
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